The Media-Pollster Axis Stole the Election

Politics is the hot ticket in journalism these days. Young reporters long to cover Capitol Hill, when once they longed for the exotic life of the foreign correspondent. “Timbuktu or bust” has become “Washington or fail.” Journalism’s stars today are those who can reel off the precincts of Iowa or the hobbies of senators, not the wonders of rural Sri Lanka.

Yet the passion for politics that has seized the Washington press corps and those who want to join it across the country has not been reflected in the public – not, at any rate, by the abysmally low national turnout of 36.3% on Nov. 4, arguably one of the most important midterm elections in a long time.

It was the lowest voter turnout in 72 years: a seeming monument to voter apathy. Certainly not the sign of a seething, unhappy electorate which believes the bums should be thrown out because the country is on the wrong track. That may be so, but you wouldn’t know it from the voter turnout.

The voter turnout wasn’t large enough for anyone to claim that the country has veered to the right, or that the victors have a mandate. Yet we know President Obama is held in low esteem, although not as low as the risible contempt in which Congress is held.

If the voters didn’t come out in large enough numbers to give us a clear reading, how do we know that Obama is on the ropes and that Congress is despised? We know it, without doubt, from the innumerable opinion polls which are now part of the journalistic toolbox.

There is no doubt about the public mood. So why didn’t the public vote when there was so much journalistic enthusiasm for the election; when an amazing amount of television time, especially on cable, was given to politics; and when radio goes at politics 24-7?

The paradox may be journalism and its commitment to opinion polls, largely funded by the media. If you know who is going to win the match, why buy a ticket?

The passion in journalism for politics has made politics a victim, robbed it of surprise and tension. I voted without passion because I had a very complete picture of the outcome before I did my civic duty. It was like reading an otherwise gripping who-done-it, when I already knew it was the butler.

The metadata people, like Nate Silver, aren’t helping either.

When newspapers are cutting their staffs and budgets are tight, why is political coverage and polling out of Washington thriving? First, it is cheaper to create news than find it. With polls, you scoop the election result. Second, there is a large pot of money for “political issues” advertising that has given rises to a raft of new outlets, forcing old-line media to double down.

Washington politics is no longer a franchise of The Washington Post and The New York Times. It has its own trade press, led by the upstart and well-funded Politico, a big news predator in a school of hungry fish. There is The Hill, Roll Call, National Journal, RealClearPolitics and more than a dozen others, like The Cook Political Report and Talking Points Memo.

It is these new entrants, with their access to instant electronic delivery, that have led the change and fueled the frenzy. They are in danger of becoming the game instead of covering it. They have become more interested in what the polls say than what the politicians say.

On Capitol Hill, members of Congress are in bunker mode. They are afraid to say anything or look a bit tired, distressed or unkempt because these ill-considered words and unflattering images will be flashed across the Internet – there to be retrieved at any time, for all time.

There is a joke around Washington that if a member of Congress breaks wind, Politico will have the story. In this new world, every trifle is recorded and archived. Is this the way to foster statecraft in a dangerous and unforgiving world? Let’s poll that question, shall we?

Lindsey Graham Calls On Republicans To Restore Senate Filibuster Rules

WASHINGTON — Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) wants Republicans to reverse the Democrats’ filibuster reforms in the new year, arguing that doing so will make it tougher for President Barack Obama to get his nominees approved.

The new system requires just 51 votes to advance executive branch nominees and judges nominated for all courts except the Supreme Court, instead of the 60 votes that were previously required. Democrats approved the reforms after Republicans were refusing to let many of Obama’s nominees go through. Half the nominees filibustered in the country’s history, for example, were blocked by Republicans during the Obama administration.

The question for Republicans now is whether to keep these reforms in place or go back to the 60-vote system. On one hand, if Republicans keep the majority in the Senate and win the presidency in 2016, the new rules would be advantageous to them because they’d be able to push through a GOP president’s nominees more easily.

But in the meantime — and if Democrats do hang on to the presidency in two years — Republicans may want to make it tougher for Democrats to confirm the president’s nominees. That, said Graham, is why he wants to go back to the 60-vote rules.

“I think we should go back to 60 votes to approve any nomination. I think it stood the test of time,” said Graham Monday during an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. “If you keep it at 51, all they [Democrats] have to do is pick up three, four Republicans and I’m worried that you’re no stronger than your weakest link. Having to get to 60 is a much more collaborative process.”

In the new Congress, Democrats will have 47 or 48 seats. (The results of the Louisiana Senate race are pending a December runoff). Therefore, as Graham noted, Democrats could approve Obama’s nominees if just a few willing Republicans join them.

“Under a 51-vote confirmation process, all they’ve got to do is pick off three,” said Graham. “Under my construct, they’ve got to get to 60, and it gives you a chance to have a say about what kind of judges we’re going to put on the bench the next two years, who will run the executive branch. I think it’s in our self-interest to go back to the way the Senate used to work and have a 60-vote hurdle. If you get a Republican president, then we’ll see what Democrats do on their watch. But the next two years, I think, it is in our self-interest to make it harder to get people into the judiciary and executive branch, not easier.”

Graham’s position is not entirely surprising, since he called for a restoration of the old rules before the election as well. But not everyone is sticking by their pre-election stances. Last week, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said Republicans should keep the Democratic reforms in place, even though he wanted to repeal them as recently as September.

“Frankly, I intend to win with our candidate for the presidency in 2016, and we will give them a taste of their own medicine,” said Hatch in a speech at the Federalist Society conference Friday.

“We should not return to the old rule,” he added. “We should teach those blunderheads that they made a big mistake. And we have the votes to stop bad judges if we want to.”

Don Stewart, spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), declined to say where his boss stands on the issue, telling The Huffington Post, “It’s a discussion our members will have.”

'The Daily Show' Rips Detroit For Cutting Off Water To Poor Residents

After Detroit began shutting off water service this year to thousands of customers behind on their bills, critics wondered why the city was letting its neediest residents go without an essential service. On Monday’s episode of the “The Daily Show,” correspondent Jessica Williams traveled to Detroit to find out.

In an interview with Williams, Detroit News editorial page editor Nolan Finley said people think they’re entitled to free water.

“It’s the perfect scheme,” Williams shot back. “Step one, be poor. Step two, don’t pay your water bill. Step three, have your water shut off. Step four — what is step four?”

Williams also took a ride in a golf cart to see why some commercial customers had been allowed to rack up hundreds of thousands of dollars in in late payments and keep their water on.

“Once again, poor people were just blaming the victim: innocent, 18-hole golf courses who desperately need their water for critical fountaining,” Williams said.

The city began a ramped-up plan to shut off water to delinquent residents this spring, steadily cutting off service at the rate of several thousand a month. About 30,000 customers had their water turned off over the last 10 months, according to an October report. Of those 30,000, over half have had their water service restored at some point, after paying their bills or working out payment plans.

Two United Nations experts have called for a federal investigation of the shut-off effort. The water department told The Associated Press this week that shut-offs will continue through winter.

Watch Williams’ look at the Detroit water crisis — and her attempt to find a free place for a few thousand people to shower — in the clip above.

Strengthening Children's Rights Through Better Data

Co-authored by Aleta Sprague and Amy Raub

Pop quiz: Will secondary school be free for your children? Do all girls and boys have access to health care? Are children and youth protected from hazardous labor? Are there any exceptions to these rules? Are you sure?

The answers to these questions are important–they help us see whether countries are fulfilling their commitments to children under international law. Yet while tracking down this information for one country might be feasible in an afternoon, getting a sense of global progress is a much more formidable challenge–and it shouldn’t be.

Twenty-five years ago today, the U.N. General Assembly adopted the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), the most widely ratified human rights treaty in history. The 194 parties to the CRC have agreed to uphold basic rights for all children, including non-discrimination, access to education, and protection from violence, among others.

The CRC’s principles have withstood the test of time. But our methods for finding out if countries are really following through could use a 21st century refresher. So what would a modern approach to increased transparency and accountability look like?

Throughout this blog series, we’ve been highlighting findings from a new online tool that demonstrates the potential of real-time, visualized data on these and other questions. The current CRC monitoring system collects valuable, in-depth information about countries’ progress every five years. However, a complementary monitoring system that provides directly comparable, up-to-date data on countries’ actions–and harnesses new technologies to make this information readily accessible and easy-to-understand–could significantly strengthen the CRC’s impact, and empower citizens around the world to push for better policies for children, youth and their families.

Take education. We’ve already looked at the role of school fees and compulsory attendance. But how do schools accommodate students with disabilities? Through analysis of existing published sources–countries’ constitutions, laws, and policies–we can determine if there is a right to non-discrimination for disabled students, and whether girls and boys with disabilities are taught within the same classrooms as their peers. Visualizing these data on interactive maps provides policymakers, advocates, and citizens with a simple way of seeing how their country’s laws and policies measure up–and whether they could do better.

The same goes for paid leave. While the vast majority of countries support children’s health by providing paid leave for new mothers (though the U.S. is a notable exception), fewer than half provide any time off for dads–and when they do, it’s typically for far shorter duration. Paid leave for fathers increases men’s involvement with their children later in life, supports gender equality at work and at home, and reduces the chances of maternal depression and its serious consequences for women and children. Meanwhile, although breastfeeding has tremendous health benefits for both moms and babies, not all countries enable working moms to breastfeed while holding a job. A common argument against better working conditions and flexible leave policies is that they will make countries less economically competitive. But by mapping countries’ policy choices around these issues, we can disrupt this myth, and show how countries across every region and income group, including the most competitive with low unemployment, have managed to enact strong social and labor policies.

These are but a few examples of the types of data and comparative global analyses that can emerge from a complementary monitoring system based on analysis of countries’ published laws and policies. To accelerate change to fully protect the world’s children, we need to utilize technology to provide actionable real-time information on issues such as these. Everyone should have access to information on their country’s policies via their cell phone. Policymakers should have the tools they need to make informed policy decisions and be held accountable for their actions. Civil society should know which countries are leaders and which are lagging behind to target advocacy efforts. Researchers should have access to quantitatively comparable data that allow them to rigorously analyze the effectiveness of individual policies in improving outcomes. At worldpolicyforum.org, we demonstrate that these ideas are feasible.

As a next step, existing national surveys could be used to monitor global implementation of the CRC, supplemented with direct input about the nature and extent of implementation of these policies from children and their families using interactive technologies. The global community has made important progress toward fulfilling the promises of the CRC over the past 25 years, but significant challenges remain. The future of millions of children depends on how fast the world acts.

This blog post is the final installment of a four-part series from the WORLD Policy Analysis Center, presenting new data and examining progress toward securing children’s rights around the world 25 years since the Convention on the Rights of the Child was adopted at the United Nations. Check out the previous posts on access to education and child labor.

4 Things You Must Do to Get the Salary You Deserve

The top workplace question I get asked about from young women is, “How do I negotiate the salary for a new job?”

Sorry, that’s not quite right. What they usually ask me, all too apologetically, is “Is it okay to ask for more money?”

In other words, will their would-be boss be put off by their demands? Will it sour the relationship before it has a chance to develop? Could the offer even be withdrawn? These women are more concerned about what their future employer will think of them than their own self-interest.

These questions make me crazy, but unfortunately, the research that’s been done in recent years shows how screwed up salary negotiations are for women.

A study reported in the Harvard Business Review that found just 7 percent of newly graduated female MBAs from Carnegie Mellon had attempted to negotiate their job offer, compared to 57 percent of their male counterparts. The authors of the book Women Don’t Ask found that the failure of women to negotiate can cost a woman more than half a million dollars over the course of her career.

So yes, by all means, you need to negotiate. And you need to pay attention to the latest research from social scientists, which in some cases, refutes the conventional wisdom. The advice below will also help men, but it’s more important for women to follow it because they are so much less likely to negotiate in the first place.

1. ALWAYS negotiate. Just decide right now that you will always negotiate for what you’re worth, end of story. Many women feel they shouldn’t have to ask for what they want– their fantasy is: I should get what I’m worth without having to fight for it. Just stop looking at negotiation as a bad thing — it’s your chance to use all those great business skills to help yourself.

Hiring managers expect you to negotiate and some will think less of you if you don’t. The chances of you being seen as overly aggressive are much less than you imagine. I have hired more than a hundred people and in all that time, there was only one person who was so obnoxious during negotiations that I nearly withdrew the offer.

On the other hand, I have had many men and women accept my first offer when I fully intended to give them at least five or even ten percent more. I would always feel kind of bad, but I never came back and said, “Here’s another $10,000 that we were planning to give you.” I just saved the money for the next person who wasn’t afraid to ask for it.

2. Negotiate at the right time. Companies always try to “pre-negotiate.” They ask you for your current salary on the application, the recruiter asks you about salary range on the first phone call, and sometimes the hiring manager will bring it up in the interview. These days, online applications make it hard to make your current salary a secret, but don’t fall in the trap of negotiating before you’re given an offer.

Throughout the entire job application process, the company is looking for ways to exclude you from the position, right until you get the offer. Then there’s a psychological shift. A hiring manager typically doesn’t think, “I’m sure any of these three candidates will do.” She decides you’re the one she really loves and she’ll be disappointed if she has to go to her second choice. This puts you in the power position. You want to avoid talking about money before this happens. If it comes up, simply say, “I’m really excited about this opportunity and I’m sure we can work out compensation later if you decide to extend me an offer.”

3. Take a power pose before you negotiate (or during if you’re on the phone.) Social psychologist Amy Cuddy’s research on body language demonstrates how “power posing” can affect your testosterone and cortisol levels. Posing for a couple of minutes in a position of confidence just before the negotiation can help you be more successful.

Business Insider shows examples of two important poses you can use. Before your interview, try “The Performer.” Throw your hands in the air and widen your stance, as if you’re a singer soaking in the applause after a performance. Think Lady Gaga. If it’s a face-to-face or video conference negotiation, you can also try a slight squint during your conversation. Pull up your lower eye lid slightly. Go for ’90s Renee Zellwinger. It will eliminate a “deer in headlights” type of wide gaze that suggests vulnerability.

4. Throw out the biggest number you can reasonably argue for. The conventional thinking used to be to let your interviewer come up with a salary number first. The idea was to avoid coming in too low. But anchoring is the new mantra, as described in Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. The first number you give will anchor the thoughts of your interviewer. So you want to set the bar as high as possible. You don’t even have to say, “I want $150K.” or whatever you think it’s a fair salary based on your research. You can instead say, “My research shows that $150 thousand would be a fair salary for this position.”

Your employer’s strategy might have been to throw out $100K with the willingness to go up to $120, but by anchoring the conversation at $150, you have a much better chance of getting, say, $140. The Harvard Law School Program on Negotiation advises that it’s fine to throw out an extreme first offer, as long as it’s flexible.

Postscript

You can also use this advice when negotiating for an annual raise or even a retirement/severance package. (One woman I know recently doubled the size of her package simply by asking for a better deal.), But you’ll never have as much power as when a company makes you an offer to bring you on board. Don’t be afraid to use it!

Want To Wear A Handy Tool For Small Measurements?

Measure RingOne of the hallmarks of great design is a clever marriage of form and function. This Measure Ring is a blend of a great piece of jewelry with a tailored look and a way to make small measurements. The face of the ring is an inch across and the cut away pieces and sides are the fractions of an inch. With this ring you can measure things easily on the run without having to pull out a tape measure or ruler.

DIY Cardboard Millenium Falcon Came from Boxes Far, Far Away

Imgur user Thomas Richner had a few cardboard boxes lying around in his basement. Instead of simply throwing them away, the teacher and animator decided to bring back one of his hobbies as a kid: making scale models of the Millenium Falcon. Young Thomas would be so proud of you man.

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Thomas’ scale model is 5ft. long and is made almost entirely of the aforementioned boxes, save for a bit of balsa wood along the ship’s hull. Aside from the numerous panels and details on the ship, it also has retractable landing gear and a detachable radar dish. After a total of 140 hours of work, Thomas took the finished model to his school’s green screen set for a photoshoot. Check out Thomas’ album for more:

She looks like much and she’s got it where it counts. I hope you come upon a landfill’s worth of cardboard boxes Thomas.

[via Make:]

Prynt Case Turns Your Phone Into a Polaroid-esque Camera

Once upon a time, when I was a wee laddie dressed up as something a bit edgy and slightly disturbing for Halloween, because my mom loves that crap, I’d stop by a particular house every year with my friends. At this house, a little old lady would be visibly disturbed by my costume choice, and then take a photo my my group with her Polaroid camera and give the result to us, in addition to the candy. It was a cool tradition, and we have a timeline of identical group photos as a result. That, and Outkast, is what I think of when someone says “Polaroid.” I like Halloween and Outkast a lot, so by association I have a pretty good feeling about cameras that immediately spit out physical pictures.

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Polaroid may have mostly abandoned that model in favor of making Instagram-specific devices and trendy-looking action cams, but there’s still a niche market out there for people who want instant physical objects. Enter the Prynt Case, into which a smart phone docks. When you take a photo with your phone, it then immediately offers to print out a keepsake to hand to friends, children in serial killer Santa outfits, or randoms you met at a party.

The Prynt Case will be on Kickstarter soon.

[via Prynt Case]

WhatsApp just gave 500,000 Android users encrypted messaging

whatsapp0-820x42011-600x307In a odd and surprising move, WhatsApp has just offered end-to-end encryption for all Android users. Relying on the Open Whisper System, and using open source code, WhatsApp just gave 500 million users totally encrypted messaging. The encrypted messages are accessed via the user’s device, using a key that only the account owner can access on the device. That means … Continue reading

Working airplane transformed into perfect loft now available on Airbnb

Working airplane transformed into perfect loft now available on Airbnb

The latest marketing stunt from the Dutch airline KLM gives you the chance to spend a night in this airplane refurbished into a gorgeous loft. At first I thought that sleeping next to the runaway of one of the busiest airports in Europe sounded like a bad idea, but then I saw the pictures and changed my mind.

Read more…