Orion: Hard to Get All Tingly Over NASA's New Capsule

NASA is preparing to launch its new Orion capsule on Thursday, December 4. It will be the first test launch of the spacecraft, which is being billed as kind of a big deal because it represents the agency’s first major step toward regaining an inhouse manned spaceflight capability — something it has not had since the end of the Space Shuttle program in 2011. Since then, the agency has had to rely on the Russian space agency Rosaviakosmos and its Soyuz rockets and capsules to transport U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). A little embarrassing, and lately… a little unsettling, given the poor state of U.S.-Russian relations.

Pardon me while I yawn, though, because while the first launch of Orion (a program which has already been around for a decade) is an important step, NASA is nowhere close to having its own manned space system. Orion will go through a series of tests to qualify it as a safe, human-rated capsule. But then it will have to wait until 2021 (at the absolute earliest) to undergo its first test flight with actual people onboard. That’s when the human-rated Space Launch System (SLS) rocket NASA’s is developing may be ready for that mission. The Delta IV that will launch Orion this first time around is a great vehicle with a stellar launch record. But it ain’t human-rated.

Assuming Congress or one of the next two presidents do not cancel SLS because of its inevitably ballooning costs, it’s more likely that the first SLS/Orion manned mission will occur closer to the middle part of the next decade. So we’re really a decade away from having an operational national manned spaceflight capability. And all those clever headlines about Orion “paving the way” for sending humans to Mars? Pardon me while I yawn again. Even NASA officials aren’t aiming for a manned SLS/Orion mission to Mars until the 2030s. I’ll be nearing my 80th birthday.

A recent Bloomberg article quotes NASA engineer Richard Boitnott as saying that he hopes the maiden Orion flight will “energize the public and energize that middle schooler [who] isn’t quite sure what he wants to do, but he likes math and science.”

Unfortunately, it probably won’t, because the timeline between Orion’s first test launch and its anticipated arrival on Mars is way way too long. A goal that is at least a generation away will never hold anyone’s attention — much less that of today’s youth. That’s why the American public lost interest in ISS. It took a quarter of a century and more than $100 billion to build, launch, and assemble that facility. During that time, Michael Jordan won six NBA championships, the Internet was invented, the iPhone, Facebook, texting. Does anyone seriously think Americans care two cents about the space station?

Imagine what humans may create on Earth during the next 20 years. Do we really think that NASA will be able to inspire and hold the public’s wonder for that long a time and successfully develop SLS/Orion while simultaneously fighting to protect the program from the countless efforts by Congress and Presidents to kill or delay it?

Bear in mind that during those two decades, private companies like SpaceX, Boeing, Sierra Nevada, Virgin Galactic, and others may well be flying dozens of manned space missions on their own human-rated rockets and capsules and spaceplanes, and in the process helping to create new industries, markets, and products. SLS/Orion could quickly become redundant, or worse — expensively irrelevant.

Mars in 20 years? Really. That’s the best ya got?

Jordan's Prince Hassan: Recognition of Palestinian State Is a 'Gross Irrelevance.' The Issue Is Citizenship for All.

Alain Elkann recently sat down in London with Jordan’s Prince El Hassan bin Talal. Here are excerpts of his interview.

How are your efforts going to bring an ecumenical community together to address the problems of the Middle East?

I am beginning to feel that voices from the region have some traction. [This month], I am going back in Rome, having already met the Holy Father earlier this year, for a meeting of the Pontifical Council where there are going to be Anglicans and Catholics, Shia and Sunni.

So I am beginning to feel that the call for justice, which basically is a call for enabling and empowering people with citizenship, is beginning to receive the support of the broad ecumenical community. Last summer in London, I also called on Archbishop Welby, and I recently spoke at the House of Lords on this topic.

The British Parliament, decades after the Balfour Declaration, has said they recognize the State of Palestine, and so does the Swedish government. And now also the French Parliament.

But you might say that this is not only too little too late. It is also a gross irrelevance, because the problem is not to recognize different sectarian and ethnic groupings; the problem is the citizenship deficit that these individuals suffer from.

I mean, for example, the Arabs of Jerusalem are living on as residents at the discretion of the Israeli Minister of Interior, and I am afraid to say that, like the Arabs of Palestine before them, Christians Jews and Muslims of Arab culture, citizenship is not yet a common denominator, and certainly not first class citizenship.

What does it take for peaceful coexistence?

The traction I feel we are beginning to get is that, for the first time in a long time, authentic ideas are coming from the region and are being listened to. Some years ago we established the West Asia-North Africa Forum, and today we are in touch with the international bar associations of the world. People are beginning to develop the content of the rule of law.

The rule of law is not simply the ballot box; the rule of law is not the conventions which come undone when you cherry pick that this convention suits me and that convention does not suit me. The rule of law that protects all citizens means recognizing for the first time the difference between “migration stakeholders” and “national stakeholders.”

Peter Sutherland, special representative of the secretary general of the U.N. for migration, says that in some ways, this is a story of Mars and Venus. It sometimes seems that migration stakeholders are from one planet — and national stakeholders from an altogether different one. They see migration very differently.

Forty-five million Egyptians are going to have to move from the Nile delta region. With global warming raising the Mediterranean sea levels, the delta will be flooded by the water. Yet, I don’t see anybody, who is interested in building the infrastructure or who cares about crisis avoidance.

Shifting the emphasis from bombs and oil to citizens being the vector of stability or instability may be, just may be, the way to propose a stabilization architecture for the region. And the region I am talking about is West Asia to South Asia, East of Suez to Iran, Turkey and Iraq.

So then you would have a situation which, as Nasser put it in his day, that would detract from Arab nationalism. But, in reality what we need is citizenship not pan-nationalism. As Churchill put it in his 1946 speech, I paraphrase, “a broader form of patriotism.”

Don’t tell me that Washington or Brussels or Rome knew what a Yazidi is, what a Malachite Christian or a Maronite Christian is, until five minutes ago. You can’t cherry pick the community you want to protect because you want to protect minorities. You have to protect the minority and the majority as equal citizens.

In terms of existential threat, Iran has the same figure of 45 million people, also potentially on the move by 2030, because the water they get is from the Zagros Mountains, where, like the Himalayas, the ice is shrinking. The water is deoxygenating and when you deoxygenate water you can’t grow anything.

So where will this 90 million people go before you can say, “Aleikum Salaam?”

We have not talked together since this time last year. What has changed since then, and what are your major concerns now?

Well, a major concern in the region, with the possible exception of Tunisia, is rampant corruption, alongside a lack of governance and of institutionalism. So I am talking today about the importance of the triple helix of political, economic and civil society coming together to talk.

You see the problem we face is that all the slogans of the Arab Spring in 2011 were just that — slogans. Democracy. Freedom.

“Rather than democracy, I think that what people are asking for is equal opportunity.”

Rather than democracy, I think that what people are asking for is equal opportunity. In the last year, since we last met, we have produced a charter in the Arab Thought Forum. Thousands of young Arabs have developed a charter proscribing discrimination at all levels; that means all the things that are not written into constitutions, with the exception, ironically, of the Egyptian constitution which is explicit. The rest of the countries only write such proscriptions into their emergency laws, and emergency laws don’t have the power of good governance.

In my country, there were about 7-8 million people when we met a year ago. Today we are 11 million. Since 2011, 32,000 Syrian children have been born in Jordan, and in the absence of policy to ensure their ability to participate, in several years’ time these children will be the foot soldiers of the Da’esh.

Obama wants to find a way to destroy the Syrian air force capability within 75 kilometers of the borders with Syria, so he puts in Patriot missiles. This is not the real issue. My point is it is not a question of 70 kilometers, or a 20 kilometer buffer in Gaza; it’s a question of groundwater and economic free zones, so that you get citizenship. When will people understand that citizenship is the basis of stability or instability? But instead we are all driven by populist factors.

Is ISIS now a major problem for you in Jordan?

People joining up with ISIS in Jordan or elsewhere is about the absence of identity. If everyone gets $1,000, or whatever it is, and if people are unemployed and humiliated, they join up.

Da’esh, or ISIS, has several components, one of which is the former Baath army which was disbanded. The second component is the Salafis, which is a sort of rejuvenation of the first Wahhabi movement in British India (the second was in Qatar).

Remember that a percentage of the population of Bahrain, of Saudi Arabia’s eastern province, and a percentage of Oman is Shia; a large percentage of Iran is Shia. So the growth of ISIS is a sort of rejuvenation of a Sunni balancing factor.

Some people say that there are those in the military establishment of the U.S. who thought maybe they can make amends now for when the U.S. disbanded the Iraqi army after it invaded by bringing the Sunni into a balancing role with the Shia. But what are they turning to? They are turning to these iconoclasts.

In Iraq, the actual administration and training of ISIS is being done by the old regime. In northern Syria and northern Iraq it’s basically a holding position. This is why I think that the comments of Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, are so important concerning making Aleppo an open city. I think Mosul should also be an open city and that all the minorities should have a chance to breathe as citizens.

There is a difference between domination and pluralism. You can refer to a sense of authority, but the federation should not be a federation of clear cut lines between us and them.

What will happen in this region? Is Jordan the only stable state? Lebanon, Syria, Iraq — what is going to happen?

Today is 1914 all over again. Margaret MacMillan at Oxford University has written a brilliant book about that war, The War that Ended Peace. Pope Francis has also made a very important remark that today we are facing a “piecemeal World War III” because every region is in conflict.

They had to go through a world war between 1914 and 1918 to get to the peace conference in Versailles. Is there a possibility of our region seeing a conference focusing on West Asia? Of the five countries that have seen military intervention, four are in our region — Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran and then we have Nigeria. And what has foreign intervention achieved? According to the terrorism index, it has not achieved anything.

You mean the bombing?

I mean the bombing yes, but also the special forces and the special operations. This is the sad point. People cannot even think, they cannot focus anymore, because of continuously being hit on the head. These are the zombies that ISIS wants. As we say, the dead-hearted.

Do you talk to the people of ISIS?

I believe in talking to everyone. At the Arab Thought Forum we invite anyone from the region who is willing to engage in conversation. When the vernacular of governance breaks down then these communities become ghettoized. As an Italian sociologist said to me years ago, “There is a big difference between cosmopolitan and convivial.” If people are all living in ghettos, they are not communicating.

There has to be an understanding of the fact that this West Asian region cannot be protected by armies and navies focused solely on gas and oil. What we need desperately is connection, conviviality and citizenship.

The 'Jingle Bells' Parody All Moms Need to Hear

Ah, the holidays. The most stressful, er, I mean JOYOUS, time of year! I don’t know about you, but my life is nuts. Between work and the kids and the house and the butt-wiping and the dinner cooking and the dish washing and the laundry and the more laundry and the more laundry, I’m at capacity. Some days, I truly don’t think I can handle another thing. So, adding the holidays, and all the tasks that comes with them, on top of my already full plate is enough to send me over the edge. Don’t get me wrong; I LOVE the holidays. It’s a wonderful time of year. I just wish I had some elves to help me get it all done.

And apparently, I’m not alone. Responsibility.org, an organization that promotes making responsible choices around drinking alcohol, did some research and found that the holidays, while wonderful, can be incredibly stressful. This is particularly true for moms, because we’ve got four billion things to do to make the “holiday magic” happen. They also found that one of the unhealthy ways a lot of us cope with the stress is by drinking more. And unfortunately, some parents even drive with their kids in the car after a few too many drinks.

This issue hits close to home for me because when I was a little girl, my father used to drive drunk with me in the car. I remember zooming through the dark, twisty roads of Vermont, gripping onto the side of my seat and praying we wouldn’t crash. Praying we’d make it home alive. I begged him to slow down. Asked him to be careful. But he just brushed me off and there was nothing I could do. I couldn’t drive. I couldn’t call a cab. I was a little kid and I was helpless. I don’t want any child to ever feel the desperation I felt in those moments. So I’ve decided to give back this holiday season and spread the word about responsible drinking… in a silly song, of course!

So, TADA! Introducing “The Holidays Are Hell” set to the tune of “Jingle Bells!” Happy Holidays!

Are Most Killings Really Interracial?

Over the past two years, names like Trayvon Martin and Ferguson, Missouri have grabbed headlines, while an emailer keeps sending me news clips where a black campus officer killed a white student at the University of South Alabama. It begs the question of whether we are seeing a significant number of interracial killings or whether these incidents are relatively rare, thus leading to a high volume of media coverage.

To determine this, I looked at the FBI data on killings for 2011, focusing on the race of the perpetrator and the race of the victim. And here’s what I found.

There were 2,640 African Americans murdered that year. In 2,447 cases, the perpetrator was African American. In 193 cases, a white perpetrator killed an African American. That means in 92.69 percent of all cases, the killing was intraracial (within a race), not interracial (between races).

That supports the argument former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was saying on NBC’s Meet the Press, when he claimed that such killings were the exception, rather than the rule. He got in a shouting match with Georgetown Professor Michael Eric Dyson, an MSNBC contributor.

“White police officers wouldn’t be there if you weren’t killing each other,” Giuliani argued in his exchange with Dyson, who claimed that the former GOP Presidential candidate had “the defensive mechanism of white supremacy at work,” according to the Washington Post.

So I decided to look at cases where there is a white victim. In 448 cases, the perpetrator is black. In 2,630 cases, a white perpetrator kills a white victim. So in 85.45 percent of all cases where there is a white victim, there is a white killer. That’s something Giuliani forgot to mention.

I ran these numbers in a 2×2 contingency table. Murders are significantly more likely to be intraracial, not interracial. White-on-white killings and black-on-black killings are nearly twice as likely to occur than a random model projects, at relatively similar levels.

Kevin D. Williamson of National Review Online adds “If you believe that black lives matter, then you should be working for school reform, economic growth, and — yes — more effective law-enforcement and crime-prevention measures to protect black communities, which suffer an enormously disproportionate share of crime and violence.”

Actually, what the data shows is that there is plenty of white-on-white violence, with rates pretty similar to black-on-black killing levels. Thankfully, crime levels are down overall since the 1980s. But we’re actually seeing an increase in white-on-white violence, especially in Stand Your Ground states, according to research by Chandler B. McClellan and Erdal Tekin, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

“Our results indicate that Stand Your Ground laws are associated with a significant increase in the number of homicides among whites, especially white males. According to our estimates, between 4.4 and 7.4 additional white males are killed each month as a result of these laws. We find no evidence to suggest that these laws increase homicides among blacks. Our results are robust to a number of specifications and unlikely to be driven entirely by the killings of assailants.”

Pundits are quick to respond to Ferguson protesters by claiming that black-on-black violence is worse. They’re right on that matter, but ignore white-on-white violence, nearly as high, and growing, despite overall drops in the national crime level.

John A. Tures is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Ga. He can be reached at jtures@lagrange.edu.

Sinclair ZX Spectrum Vega Portable Console Runs Entire Spectrum of ZX Spectrum Games

It may not have been as popular in the U.S., but the Sinclair ZX Spectrum holds a special place in British home computer history. Sinclair founder Sir Clive Sinclair was freakin’ knighted mainly because of the ZX Spectrum. Heck, until today people are still developing software for the 8-bit computer. Keep all those things in mind when you hear about the ZX Spectrum Vega’s price.

sinclair-zx-spectrum-vega-portable-consolezoom in

The ZX Spectrum Vega is a pocket-sized plug-and-play version of the ZX Spectrum and will be compatible with all ZX Spectrum games. As shown in the prototype above, Sinclair ditched most of the original ZX Spectrum’s keys and opted for a gaming controller layout, though the Vega will have an onscreen keyboard. The company is also considering adding hardware inputs such as USB or Bluetooth.

sinclair-zx-spectrum-vega-portable-console-2zoom in

Software-wise, the Vega will be preloaded with 1,000 games and will have an SD card slot so you can load more.

I can’t even tell if the video is tongue-in-cheek or sincere in its aesthetics. I choose to believe it’s the latter. Speaking of outdated, keep an eye on Sinclair’s website to see when the Vega will go on sale. Sinclair already sold its first 1,000 units of the Vega on Indiegogo for £100 (~$156 USD) each; the company believes succeeding batches will be cheaper.

[via Eurogamer]

LEGO Christmas Tree Time Lapse Build is Block-ificent

LEGO is a magnificent invention, and one of the coolest toys in the world. The little brick can deliver the most pain known to man when you step on one, and be used to build just about anything in any size you can imagine.

lego-treezoom in

In Australia, a group of LEGO geeks built a giant Christmas tree out of LEGO and Duplo bricks. They were kind enough to make a time-lapse video so we can watch the build.

The finished tree weighs over 3.5 tons. That is a lot of bricks. The blocky tree stands 32.8-feet tall, and is on display at the Pitt Street Mall until December 26, 2014. If you live anywhere near Sydney, Australia, it is certainly worth a trip to see. Check to the videos for more detail.

[via The Awesomer via Nerd Approved]

Amazon Fire Phone 2 on the way

amazonAmazon CEO Fire Phone Jeff Bezos has indicated that another Fire Phone is on the way. At a Business Insider conference in New York, Bezos spoke with Henry Blodget, CEO of Business Insider. There in reference to what he thought about the state of the Fire Phone, Bezos suggested “ask me in some number of years.” He added, “it’s going … Continue reading

Beats boss Iovine hints at streaming service for Apple

beatsmoney-600x4531At Apple, Beats co-founder Jimmy Iovine has no actual role. The music mogul reportedly works alongside Eddy Cue, who heads up Apple’s iTunes department. In the acquisition, Apple got a lot more than Beats hardware and streaming service; they got talent. In being named one of GQ’s men of the year, Iovine spilled some details on what led Apple to … Continue reading

You Have One Hour to Get A Guaranteed Google Inbox Invite

You Have One Hour to Get A Guaranteed Google Inbox Invite

If you’ve been hassling everyone you know for an invite to Gmail’ s shiny new email app Inbox , now’s your lucky break. From now until 3pm EST, Google is giving anyone who asks a guaranteed invite.

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The New WTC Train Station Will Probably Cost More Than the Skyscraper

The New WTC Train Station Will Probably Cost More Than the Skyscraper

4 billion dollars. It’s almost twice as much as it cost to develop the most expensive plane in history. It’s more than the cost of the new World Trade Center, the tallest building in North America. It’s also the projected cost of NYC’s newest train station.

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