Hasta La Gadget!

The Coconut Grove Arts Festival has selected internationally recognized French American painter Duaív as the official poster artist for this year’s 52nd annual event. Thursday night, atop the Sonesta Bayfront Hotel, in Coconut Grove, the colorful, nautical-themed art was unveiled to a crowd of friends and sponsors of the festival. Above, Duaív  greets the press and party guests right after the unveiling.

Duaív joins the Festival’s selective group of official poster artists that includes such notables as Guy Harvey, Maria Reyes Jones, Jacqueline Roch, Xavier Cortada, Clyde Butcher, Rick Garcia, Lisa Remeny, Alexander Mijares and Romero Britto. 

This year’s poster image encompasses Duaív’s signature uplifting and bright style with one of Coconut Grove’s most emblematic icons. Titled “Voiliere” – meaning “sailboat” in French – Duaív blends his own fascination of marine imagery with scenes from that of Miami’s own famous harbor in Biscayne Bay. The work was done with a palate knife, so it’s very textured. 

Throughout the years, here and abroad, Duaív has received a multitude of awards 

and accolades. One of those most special to him was when HRH Prince Henrik of 

Denmark awarded him with the Commander of the Order of the Star of Europe, European Foundation Prize, for his efforts to promote and assist contemporary artists and his home country. He continues to exhibit all over the world in favorite locations such as France, Switzerland, Belgium, Spain, Tunisia, Australia and across the United States. The Sonesta did an amazing job of catering and hosting the event, as usual.

For more information on the Arts Festival, visit cgaf.com. 

Magella, Duaív’s wife listens as Duaív addresses the guests. Monty Trainer, president of the Arts Festival and Sylvano Bignon, owner of Greenstreet Cafe and LuLu, listen in, too. Sylvano is friend with Duaív and Magella, he joked that every time he sees them, their hair is a different color. Last time, they matched, both with pink hair. 

Margaret Nee, of the PointeGroup with William Rivas, manager of CocoWalk; Ken Drodvillo with Capt. Mike Dudik of Celebration Yachts.

Lilia Garcia, of the Arts Festival board with Peter Laird, president of the Coconut Grove Chamber of Commerce; Duaív and Magella.

John O’Sullivan with Monty Trainer; Yvonne Rosemeier with Eric Lopez, of the Loft Salon and Boutique.

Katrina Delgado Artist & Special Event Director of the Arts Festival with Susan and Roger Chai-onn and  Gregory Frye of Fast-Signs, one of the Arts Festival sponsors.

Back in 2011, a man called Raphael Pirker ‘recklessly’ flew his five-pound foam airplane around the University of Virginia without hurting anyone , an act the FAA thought worthy of a $10,000 fine. A few years of wasted court time later, and both parties have agreed to settle for $1,100.

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DreamWorks Animation has produced some popular movies, but the company itself has been facing some struggles for a while, and now it seems it has a plan in place to address that. Unfortunately, according to a recent announcement by the company, that plan involves a restructuring that will require 500 jobs to be cut. When precisely those jobs will be … Continue reading

By Nobuhiro Kubo

TOKYO, Jan 23 (Reuters) – The mother of a Japanese journalist being held captive by Islamic State militants along with another Japanese citizen appealed for his safe release on Friday as a ransom deadline neared and the Japanese government raced to respond.

In an online video released on Tuesday, a black-clad figure holding a knife stood between journalist Kenji Goto and troubled loner Haruna Yukawa, threatening to kill them if Tokyo did not pay Islamic State $200 million within 72 hours.

The Japanese government considers the deadline to be 2:50 p.m. local time (0550 GMT) on Friday.

“Kenji has always said he wanted to save the lives of children in war zones. He has reported on wars from an unbiased position. Kenji is not an enemy of the Islamic State. Please release him,” Goto’s mother, Junko Ishido, said in a statement released at a news conference.

“Japan has a war-renouncing clause in its constitution and has not fought a war for 70 years. Japan is not an enemy of Islamic countries and has kept ties of friendship,” she said.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said saving the men’s lives is paramount but that Japan will not bow to terrorism.

Abe has ordered his government to make every effort to secure their safe release, setting off a flurry of activity among Japanese diplomats.

The captor in the video, which resembles those showing previous Islamic State captives, says the ransom demand matches the $200 million in aid that Abe pledged to help countries fighting Islamist militants.

Abe made the pledge during a multi-nation visit to the Middle East. Islamic State militants have seized large areas of Iraq and Syria, and beheaded several Western captives.

Japan stresses that its donation is for humanitarian aid, such as helping refugees, but insists it will not bow to terrorist threats.

Tokyo’s most prominent mosque, the Tokyo Camii and Turkish Culture Center, posted a statement calling for the prompt release of the hostages.

It said Islamic State’s actions are “totally against Islam and have a serious impact on Muslim communities all over the world and put Muslims in a precarious position.”

Abe’s handling of the hostage crisis – he must appear firm but not callous – will be a big test for the 60-year-old, but he appears to have few options.

Yukawa, aged around 42 and who dreamed of becoming a military contractor, was captured in August outside the Syrian city of Aleppo. Goto, 47, a war correspondent with experience in Middle East hot spots, went to Syria in late October to try to help Yukawa.

“He left a very young baby and left his family and I asked his wife why he made this decision and she said he had to do everything in his power to save his friend and acquaintance and that it was very important to him,” said Goto’s mother, struggling to hold back tears. (Writing by William Mallard and Linda Sieg; Editing by Paul Tait)

I am among those economists who have argued that expansive fiscal policy has been missing as a lever to support recovery in advanced economies, especially in the Eurozone – see here and here.

At the same time, I have cast doubts on recent attempts of using it to prop up growth in some emerging markets – see here and here in the case of Brazil.

In a recent debate, I was asked whether I was using a double standard, by taking an anti-austerity opinion on advanced economies, while favoring it elsewhere.

Chapter 3 of the latest World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) sheds new light on that question. As part of a three-pronged rationale for fiscal policy, countercyclical policies may be used as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization. However, as approached in the report, two related preconditions must be in place for expansive fiscal policies to work:

First, there must be enough fiscal space available. Fiscal space corresponds to how far the fiscal stimulus can go without jeopardizing fiscal solvency and the government balance-sheet soundness (in terms of both maturity profile and dependency on nonresident creditors, which may raise rollover or liquidity risks for sovereign debt). Policies that can stress private sector balance sheets and thereby generate contingent fiscal liabilities are also to be reckoned.

Second, fiscal policy must be effective in terms of raising the level of economic activity. Such effectiveness may be gauged by the “fiscal multiplier”, i.e. the output increase resulting from one unit of local-currency increase in government consumption. The report highlights the strong evidence pointing out how the sizes of such multipliers vary in accordance with macroeconomic conditions and country characteristics.

In the world of fiscal policy, cycles are important. The fiscal multiplier tends to be smaller during expansions than in recessions, because of lesser installed capacity and unemployed labor, as well as a likely smaller share of households facing liquidity constraints.

The availability of fiscal space is also of paramount importance and is a big factor in determining the effectiveness of fiscal policy. When fiscal space is narrow, the multiplier tends to be dampened through two channels: interest rates tend to move up across the board as a consequence of perceived higher sovereign credit risks; additionally, private agents are more likely to anticipate future tax increases and in turn trim their spending.

The GEP chart below displays World Bank estimates of fiscal multipliers for a sample of Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) for different levels of fiscal spaces – measured as fiscal balances as percent of GDP – at horizons of one and two years. The conclusion follows:

“In sum, the empirical evidence presented here suggests that wider fiscal space is associated with more effective fiscal policy in developing countries. This result holds for different types of fiscal space measures using various empirical approaches.”

Chart 1 – Fiscal multipliers by fiscal space

Source: Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 (p.131)
Note: Fiscal space is narrow (wide) when fiscal balances are low (high). Solid lines represent the median, and shaded areas around the solid lines are the 16-84 percent confidence bands.

So, how does what we now know about the fiscal multiplier/fiscal space dynamic help me respond when I am accused of applying “double standards”? Differences in cyclical stages and fiscal spaces lead to different assessments of fiscal policy effectiveness – something obvious to economists, but not necessarily something policymakers take to heart.

Back in 2012, I argued here that fiscal policy had then taken a restrictive turn in the US and in the Eurozone as a whole for reasons other than exhaustion of fiscal space. As for Eurozone countries under stress, given their dire conditions in terms of unemployment and idle capacity, the discussion above helps us understand why their own fiscal multipliers – operating downwards – ended up delivering a greater shot in the arm than many expected. To wit, the claim that fiscal austerity has been over-prescribed as necessary medicine with respect to the US and Eurozone as a single economic entity.

Contrast this with the situation in many EMEs and FMEs. As approached by the GEP, after building fiscal space by shrinking debt and closing deficits during the 2000s, most of those countries were able to use it for countercyclical fiscal stimulus during the Great Recession of 2008-09. Furthermore, they could take advantage of historically low global interest rates then prevailing. That fiscal space has not subsequently been built up again and since the era of of abnormally low interest rates is bound to end one can understand calls for caution when it comes to any move to over-extend an expansionary fiscal stance. The report suggests institutional frameworks – fiscal rules, stabilization funds, and medium-term expenditure frameworks – that can help those countries widen their fiscal space and enhance policy outcomes.

The Brazilian case may be seen as one in which both cycle and space limits to expansionary fiscal policies are currently binding. Brazil’s round of expansionary fiscal policies implemented in 2012-2014, did not lift “animal spirits” as hoped. This was due not only to structural reasons, but also because of the perception of fiscal deterioration and the need for monetary policy tightening since 2013. Looking ahead, the fiscal squeeze starting to be implemented this year is also required not only to restore fiscal confidence, but also to underpin the process of upward correction in regulated prices and of exchange rate devaluation, the inflationary impact of which would lead to much higher interest rates in the absence of a support from fiscal policy – see here.

In sum, one might say that, instead of “double standards”, the asymmetrical stance of fiscal policies that I have been advocating may rather be seen as standards that make sense given different levels of economic slack and fiscal space in diverse economies.

All opinions expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank.