A Reporter Remembers Muhammad Ali And The 'Thrilla In Manila'

2016-06-09-1465504827-4754519-OurPaths.clipular1.png
Create a tribute of your own, or see the comple tribute to Ali at OurPaths.com

By CLAY HASWELL

In the spring of 1975, when the snow in the frozen north began to melt and turn the streets of Anchorage to slush, I found myself thinking of warmer places and scheming to get myself to one of them as soon as possible.

I was working as a sports reporter at a hopeless (and now defunct) Anchorage newspaper at the time and it occurred to me that, if nothing else, this bizarre employment, which focused mainly on covering dog sled races and Eskimo games, might indeed provide a way out of the cold and into the sunlight.

The so-called “Thrilla in Manila” heavyweight fight between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier had been announced, and there was a possibility, albeit a slim one, that I could leverage my lofty post at the Anchorage Times to obtain a press pass to cover the fight in the Philippines.

It worked.

2016-06-09-1465502697-9097242-Presscredential.jpg
Rookie reporter’s press credential, 1975

And while this is not a memorial to the life of Ali, it is certainly a remembrance of youth, when all things were possible, all past was promise, and the Greatest of All Time was at his greatest.

I was a greenhorn reporter writing for a newspaper no one had ever heard of nor probably ever will. Other reporters would read the name of my employer, the Anchorage Times, on my press credential and would look, I may as well admit, askance.

Another caveat: this isn’t a memoir of what has been called the greatest fight of all time. I think Ali and Toni Morrison, the Nobel Prize-winning author, and many sportswriters over the past 40 years have pretty much put that to bed.

But that said, I still remember almost every moment of my several days standing on the periphery of greatness.

I remember one of Ali’s press conferences because of a chance encounter with Ali’s legendary trainer, Angelo Dundee. It was a blistering hot day and I was at the back of the room dripping with sweat, struggling to hear Ali taking questions from the mob of scribblers when a stomach growled like a lion on a mission beside me.

I turned.

Dundee.

angelo dundee muhammad ali
Angelo Dundee and Muhammad Ali

“Sorry,” said Dundee. “Been like this for three days.”

I reached into my shirt pocket for a vial of pills I kept at the ready. “Try these,” I said, and shook out a pair of Lomotil tablets into his hand. “Works like a cork.” Dundee, who passed in in 2012, and I will forever share that bond.

The contrast between fighters could not have been more prominent. Frazier was serious and determined. Ali was in a world of his own creation, basking in the joy of being Muhammad Ali. Nothing could illustrate this more clearly than a reception held at Malacanang Palace by President Ferdinand Marcos and his wife Imelda, she of the many mukluks.

Several hundred reporters were taking full advantage of the free booze and canapes when the President, wife at his side, along with their children Imee, Aimee, Irene and Bongbong, took to the stage to mark the entrance of the combatants. Joe Frazier entered the room first.

Marcos asked for quiet. Frazier, the former heavyweight champion of the world, made his way to the stage amid a somewhat tepid reception. Marcos welcomed the champ to the Philippines, praised his accomplishments and wished him well.

And then came Ali. He wore an expression of feigned urgency and a traditional Philippine barong shirt, sheer linen over rippling muscles.

2016-06-09-1465503314-3290531-987eeba8694144f3a7e87d47d6323f65_18.jpg
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Ali, Imelda Marcos, Frazier

The ballroom fell silent. The man could suck the air out of an airplane hangar.

President Marcos then launched into an emotional and heartfelt paean to Ali which, as I recall, included phrases like “the greatest who ever lived” and “brings great honor to our country” and so forth as Ali waited silently.

When Marcos wrapped up his florid introduction, Ali looked over at his wife, Imelda. The audience waited. Ali looked Imelda up and down, and then spoke to Marcos:

“You ain’t such a chump yourself.”

I filed daily stories from Manila and sent them by Telex to Anchorage, where they were received by an editor named Mike Granberry, now an arts writer at the Dallas Morning News. Granberry distinguished himself in many ways at the Anchorage Times but never more eloquently than when he arrived one morning in his pajamas so as not to miss a deadline.

I never reported on Lomotil or any of the myriad bizarre occurrences. But I did, with Granberry’s encouragement, report on the atmosphere at the fight itself as it appeared from the second row ringside, in a corner where Ali went into a rope-a-dope tactic that, in close proximity, was terrifying.

2016-06-09-1465503753-4020349-muhammadaliheavyweightcassiusclay_3358007.jpg

He allowed Smokin’ Joe Frazier to pound him over and over as he leaned into the ropes in front of us, absorbing punches so powerful that a blow to the chest would cause his totally relaxed muscles to ripple all the way down his legs. At one point a blow to the head sent a spray of perspiration in our direction.

I was seated next to the reporter from Andy Warhol’s Interview magazine. He was 18 and another novice at covering heavyweight fights. Two years earlier, I knew from news reports, my fellow reporter had been the victim of a highly publicized kidnapping, and at one point his assailants chopped off one of his ears and sent it to his father in order to get his father’s attention.

His name was John Paul Getty III, son of the oil tycoon widely considered one of the richest men in the world at the time.

Getty, referred to by some at the time as the Earless Heir, passed in 2011, no doubt an Ali partisan to the end. Joe Frazier, who became close to Ali late in life, died the same year. The stage seems a bit bare at this point. Toni Morrison is still alive, as is Imelda Marcos and her son Bongbong. Granberry is still slinging stories about Jackson Browne and Jimmy LaFave and the Texas music scene.

2016-06-09-1465503552-7768011-alifrazier.jpg
Ali & Frazier in later years

But now that Ali is gone, along with most of the entourage that converged on Manila, the world seems somehow different. Youth seems even more distant.

I wanted to write a story to remember how it felt to report on the Thrilla before the memory fades, not just about the big things but the little things too; I wanted to be 26 and writing about what soon became history. I wanted to dedicate it to Ali and to things past and gone forever. Sometimes writing is just blowing on the ashes in a fireplace, trying to stoke a flame, keeping memories alive with words.

OurPaths.com is a place to remember people and things we never want to forget.

Earlier on Huff/Post50:

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Justin Bieber's Songs Get The '80s Reworking He Never Knew They Needed

Justin Bieber wasn’t around in the 1980s. But what if he had been?

YouTuber TRONICBOX has reimagined how the Canadian pop star’s songs could have sounded if he’d been born a couple of decades earlier (than his actual birth year of 1994).

His smash hit “What do you mean?” is transformed into a breathy, synth-heavy love ballad — just watch out for that saxophone solo. Check it out here:

Love Yourself” has also been given a phenomenal makeover. Forget the pared-back original. This version is all about the ’80s.

Check it out here:

TRONICBOX uploaded both clips, complete with hilariously mocked-up images of Bieber sporting a mullet-hairdo, to YouTube in April. They are now going viral.

The Huffington Post has reached out for comment.

Meanwhile, check out some more of the YouTuber’s work — including this similar reimagining of “One Last Time” by Arianna Grande:

And you’ve almost certainly never heard OMI’s “Cheerleader” like this before:

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Trump's Teleprompter Isn't the Problem

Some advice The Donald is sure to ignore…

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Chillest Dad Ever Catches Baseball One-Handed While Holding Daughter

A super-chill dad kept his calm when a foul ball flew towards him and his young daughter at a Major League game on Thursday.

Instead of ducking for cover, Brian Kucharik just plucked the baseball from the air — while cradling little Emily to his chest and holding a tray of hot dogs in his other hand.

Footage of his superb catch, during the Philadelphia Phillies’s home clash against the Toronto Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park, was posted online and is now going viral.

I wasn’t too worried,” the cool-as-ever Kucharik told Newsweek afterwards. “I play outfield so I’m used to it. It was coming right to my glove hand, so I was pretty confident.”

“I’ve been playing for about 30 years now. It looked like a normal fly ball from the outfield, I put my hand up — I’m lefty — so with my right hand, catching the ball was pretty easy,’ he added to MLB.com.

The home side ended up losing 13-2 to the team from Toronto, prompting many fans to lightheartedly call for Kucharik to be called up to play.

Watch the incredible catch in the clip above.

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Why Traveling Is Good For Your Relationship

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){‘undefined’!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if(‘object’==typeof commercial_video){var a=”,o=’m.fwsitesection=’+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video[‘package’]){var c=’&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D’+commercial_video[‘package’];a+=c}e.setAttribute(‘vdb_params’,a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById(‘vidible_1’),onPlayerReadyVidible);

Honeyfund CEO Sara Marguilis knows a thing or two about planning those romantic weeks after you tie the knot to your significant other. In the video above, watch Marguilis explain how traveling together can be a “main factor in keeping a couple’s relationship happy.”

This video was produced by Katrina Norvell.

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Using Bread-and-Butter Issues to Try to Foment Political Change in the Former Soviet Union

2016-06-18-1466237525-467-MFSU.jpg

Image: Map of the Former Soviet Union

It hasn’t been a good year for Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The country’s petroleum-based economy continues to suffer from the low price of oil.

Radical Islamists made international headlines by attacking a gun store and a National Guard facility in the western city of Aktobe early this month, killing 20 people. Kazakh authorities killed 18 radicals and arrested several during and after the attacks.

But the worst news for Nazarbayev was nationwide protests since May against the government’s plan to increase from 10 to 25 years the length of time that foreigners can lease public land for agriculture.

That provision was part of a government land-privatization reform package aimed at increasing the amount of land under cultivation in Kazakhstan, the world’s ninth-largest country.

Many Kazakhs rose up against the government in the mistaken belief that the new package allows the country to sell — rather than lease — land to Chinese farmers.

Kazakh officials contend that the Nazarbayev administration’s political opponents spread the Chinese land-sale rumors to try to foment a popular uprising that would lead to a coup.

They are probably right. Political opponents elsewhere in the former Soviet Union have also seized on bread-and-butter issues to stoke popular unrest.

The best examples are uprisings over electric-rate increases in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

In many ways, using bread-and-butter issues to stoke unrest is smarter than asking the public to rise up for political reasons.

For one thing, most people in the former Soviet Union hold the cynical view that a change of government will simply replace one set of crooks with another, and do nothing for society. That means a lot of the public can’t get excited about political appeals to them.

But they can get fired up about bread-and-butter issues that could affect their futures.

In the case of Kazakhstan, the bread-and-butter appeal is the contention that millions of Chinese farmers could flood into the country and refuse to leave, jeopardizing Kazakhs’ livelihoods and making the country a virtual Chinese colony.

In the case of the electric-rate increases in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, the bread-and-butter appeal was the contention that there would be less money in people’s pockets for food, rent and other necessities.

The Kyrgyzstan rate increase actually led to President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s ouster in 2010.

Much of the public was unhappy with Bakiyev for other reasons, particularly the belief that he used fraud to steal his re-election in 2009.

But Bakiyev’s decision to double electric rates was what ultimately proving his undoing by provoking the uprising that led to his fleeing the country.

Learning from the Kyrgyzstan situation, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan took steps to co-opt street demonstrations against a 17 percent rate increase that the country’s Russian-owned main utility planned for August of 2015.

Sargsyan announced that for an unspecified period the government would cover the difference between the old and new rates so that consumers wouldn’t have to.

Armenia is one of the poorest countries in the former Soviet Union, so the rate increase would have taken a big bite out of people’s incomes.

You can be sure that opposition forces in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia smacked their lips over the public anger that the rate increases generated. That anger presented them with an opportunity: If they could figure out how to channel it, they might be able to foment a general uprising that would usher them into office.

Russia was so concerned that the rate-increase protests in Armenia could lead to an uprising against its ally Sargsyan that it warned the Armenian public against trying to pull off a color revolution in the country.

Opposition forces across the former Soviet Union learned from the Kyrgyzstan and Armenian rate-increase uprisings that seizing on bread-and-butter issues may be a better way to precipitate regime change than using political appeals.

Kazakhstan officials became convinced that the opposition was using the land issue to try to spark a popular political uprising in the same way that the Kyrgyzstan and Armenian oppositions had seized on the electric-rate-increase issue.

To warn the opposition that it was treading on dangerous ground, Kazakh officials went public with their belief that those spreading the Chinese-land-sale rumors had the ulterior motive of trying to seize the bread-and-butter issue to precipitate a general political uprising.

For the time being, both Armenia and Kazakhstan have checkmated the opposition’s use of bread-and-butter issues to try to foment a general uprising.

Having learned that bread-and-butter issues can be effective change agents, you can be sure that opposition movements are looking for the next one to seize on — and that governments are brainstorming counter-measures.

Armine Sahakyan is a human rights activist based in Armenia. A columnist with the Kyiv Post and a blogger with The Huffington Post, she writes on human rights and democracy in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Follow her on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/ArmineSahakyann

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Charlie Sheen Takes Down 'Charlatan' Donald Trump And His Fake Wedding Gift

All that glitters is not gold, especially when it comes to Donald Trump.

Charlie Sheen says the presumptive GOP nominee once gave him an impromptu wedding gift of what he said were platinum and diamond cufflinks.

But there was one problem. They weren’t actually the real deal. And when the Hollywood actor had them valued, he claims they turned out to be fake.

Sheen recounted the incident on “The Graham Norton Show,” which aired in the U.K. on Friday night. 

“I’m really not a fan,” Sheen said of Trump, who spoke to him at a dinner around five years ago. “He says ‘these are platinum diamond Harry Winston’ and he pulls off his cufflinks and he gives them to me.”

Six months later, a jeweler was appraising jewelry at his home and Sheen — who later described Trump as a “charlatan” — asked her to take a look at the ‘links.

“She took the loop, spent about four seconds, and kind of recoiled from it — much like people do from Trump — and says ‘in their finest moment, this is cheap pewter and bad zirconias,'” Sheen, who revealed in November that he’d been diagnosed as HIV Positive, added.

“And they’re stamped ‘Trump.’ And I just thought, ‘what does this really say about the man, that he said, ‘here’s a great wedding gift,’ and it’s just a bag of dogshit?” Trump has so far not commented on the claims.

Watch the full clip above.

 

Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liarrampant xenophoberacistmisogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Bill Maher Calls Out Donald Trump's Response To Orlando Shooting

Bill Maher took Donald Trump to task over his appalling response to the Orlando shooting on Friday.

The “Real Time with Bill Maher” host said the presumptive GOP nominee’s horrific reaction to the massacre at the Pulse nightclub exposed him for exactly what he is — selfish and narcissistic.

And Maher claimed it had done Trump’s presidential campaign a whole lot of damage, because people were finally seeing the billionaire businessman’s true side.

“I see it as, this was the week it ended,” said Maher. “I don’t think I’m the only one, because most of the Republicans who were caught on camera this week basically said, ‘I don’t want to talk about it.”

“The judge thing looked selfish. There is no constituency for Trump University except for Donald Trump,” Maher told the audience, in reference to Trump’s obnoxious treatment of Judge Gonzalo Curiel.

“And then the first thing out of his mouth after Orlando was, ‘I was right.’ He looks like what he is — a narcissist,” Maher added.

Watch Friday night’s full clip above.

 

Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Why African genomic studies can solve the continent's health issues

2016-06-18-1466233672-6660750-africagen.jpg

Nicholas N Ngomi, African Population and Health Research Center

Genomic research has proven to be a considerably valuable tool in global attempts to tackle disease.

One crucial part of this research has been identifying diseases and health problems that are more likely to be influenced by genetic factors and assessing the risk of a particular disease in an individual.

Eventually scientists will be in a position to develop new ways to treat, cure or even prevent the thousands of diseases that afflict humankind. And it will also allow them to assess the risk that exposure to toxic agents poses to individuals.

But for the world’s poorest people, the diseases that affect them have remained understudied. This is mainly due to most of these studies focusing on the genetic risk factors for disease in European populations.

For example, recent studies from Sweden’s Uppsala University show men with blood cells that don’t carry the Y chromosome – a sex chromosome normally only present in male cells – are at greater risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease. They also have an increased risk of death from other causes, including many cancers.

But will African men be affected in the same way? African populations have evolved significantly over time. Their genetic composition is more diverse than that of European and other populations so this may not be the case. Very little is known about the nature and extent of this diversity.

With the high burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa, medical research needs a significant boost on the continent to identify genetic risk factors for diseases and to tackle the spread of drug resistance and emerging infections.

Genomic research has gained considerable momentum on the continent in the past decade. But challenges, such as a lack of high-quality clinical and epidemiological data across all countries, still hamper efforts.

A different genetic makeup

Genetic research taking place in Africa has focused on the genomic and environmental risk factors for cardiometabolic disease in Africans. Cardiometabolic diseases are those associated with the heart and include strokes, heart attacks and diabetes.

According to the statistics, non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cancer, heart disease and chronic respiratory illness have all skyrocketed in sub-Saharan Africa in the past ten years.

Globally, more than 16 million people die from non-communicable diseases. Of these, 80% are in low- and middle-income countries.

Research teams are trying to understand the interplay between genetic factors, the changes in the way the gene expresses itself, or epigenetics, and environmental risk factors for obesity and related heart diseases. They are using existing longitudinal cohorts from four countries: Kenya, South Africa, Ghana and Burkina Faso. And they have six study sites across these countries, which have undergone different population changes as a result of their individual burdens of disease.

The goal of this initiative, the first of its kind in Africa, is to develop the capacity to carry out these kinds of studies in populations around the continent. This would help scientists better understand the genetic and genomic markers for disease.

One of the diseases that the study is attempting to understand is alcoholism.

Global studies have shown that the amount of alcohol one drinks and whether this progresses to alcoholism has a genetic influence. Separate findings show that processes that are related to factors in the gene, but that do not change the sequence of the DNA, also play a role. These are known as epigenetic processes.

And in European, North American and Asian populations, research has drawn a correlation between genetic variations for drugs and dependence.

Alcohol consumption and problems related to alcohol vary widely around the world but the burden of disease and death remains significant in most countries. It is the world’s third largest risk factor for disease and disability.

It is also one of the four risk factors that lead to people developing non-communicable diseases such as heart attacks and strokes. In middle-income countries, it is the greatest risk factor.

But very little is known about the risk of alcohol consumption in sub-Saharan African populations. This is despite statistics from the World Health Organisation listing 17 countries on the continent as heavy drinking countries. Nigeria takes the lead.

The high toll of alcohol and drug over-consumption among African populations means that this must become a priority. Understanding the genetic and genomic markers of diseases such as alcoholism would lead to research interrogating whether drug use and abuse are genetically linked.

And this could lead to an evidence-based approach to control drug use and abuse that fits the African context. It would help the continent improve its efforts to eliminate one of the four main risk factors for non-communicable disease.

Challenges and solutions

The amount of available genomic information has grown rapidly in the past decade, mainly due to the falling cost and increasing efficiency of DNA sequencing technologies.

But DNA sequencing is still relatively expensive for large-scale studies. Africa lags behind other continents with such studies. This is mainly due to:

  • a shortage of African scientists with genomic research expertise;

  • lack of biomedical research infrastructure;

  • limited computational expertise and resources;

  • lack of adequate support for biomedical research by African governments; and

  • the participation of many African scientists in collaborative research at no more than the level of sample collection.

Although scientists on the continent are unable to match the scale of research produced on other continents, they are continuously attempting large-scale genome-sequencing studies focused on specific diseases.

The H3Africa project, funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Wellcome Trust, supports several studies involving collaborative centres on the continent.

In addition, ongoing genomic projects in Africa are both establishing infrastructure for genomic research and training local researchers, as well as generating genomic datasets.

Many of these projects have made capacity building one of their core missions. This will in the long run build a critical mass of highly skilled individuals in the field shaping the future of genomic studies in Africa.

The Conversation

Nicholas N Ngomi, Research officer, African Population and Health Research Center

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

How birds endemic to southern Africa are likely to cope with climate change

2016-06-18-1466229783-7243071-bird.jpg

Brian Huntley, Durham University

Southern Africa is noted for its wealth of biological diversity and for its high proportion of endemic species. These are species that are unique to a specific location and are found nowhere else in the world. Many of the region’s endemic species can be found in South Africa’s fynbos and succulent Karoo biomes.

While it is important to understand how biodiversity arises in particular regions, it is even more important to understand how it is maintained. This is particularly pressing given the global commitment to conserving biodiversity and the changes in the global environment. Climatic changes, in particular, lead to changes both in the areas occupied by individual species and in the areas able to support particular biomes.

Given the pace and magnitude of the climatic changes now taking place, it is vital to understand how these will affect our ability to conserve biodiversity.

Our study investigated this by examining how present biodiversity patterns in southern Africa are related to past climatic changes. In particular we studied the extent to which these led to changes in the extent and location of the biomes.

Our results showed that the current diversity of biome-associated endemic species is greatest in areas where the same biome has been able to persist. This result for birds, a relatively mobile group, is almost certainly the same for other less mobile groups.

Our study, published in the Journal of Biogeography, set out to address the question of how diversity is maintained. Answering this question is essential if we are to understand how climatic change will affect biodiversity and to develop strategies to meet global biodiversity conservation targets.


Southern African biomes.

Studying diversity

We tested two hypotheses: that present patterns of diversity and occurrence of endemic species, are related to

  • stability of the climate; and/or

  • persistence of a biome over glacial-interglacial time scales.

We tested our hypotheses using as a model group of organisms the 697 native bird species that breed in southern Africa. These included 163 regional endemics, such as the orange-breasted sunbird, endemic to the fynbos, and the Karoo korhaan, endemic to the Karoo. We used bird species because their present distribution in the region is more completely mapped than other major groups.

We looked at the past 140,000 years. This extends from the penultimate glacial period through the last interglacial period (starting about 127,200 years ago), through the last glacial period (starting about 109,500 years ago) and the current interglacial or Holocene period (starting about 11,700 years ago).

During glacial periods, large areas of the northern hemisphere continents were covered by ice sheets and the global climate was markedly colder and drier. Climate during the periods between glacials – interglacials – more closely resembled that of the past two centuries.

The glacial-interglacial time scale is significant because the changes in global climate during this period are the largest-magnitude climatic changes of the recent geological past. They are also comparable with those projected for the near future if greenhouse gases continue to be put into the atmosphere at the present rate.

We used the results from a series of 78 climate model experiments for time slices throughout this period as the basis for our study.

Climate variation

Using the results of the climate model experiments and a global dataset of recent (1961-90) climatic conditions for the cells of a 0.5° longitude x latitude grid, we calculated the climate of each 0.5° grid cell in southern Africa for each of the 78 time slices. We then computed several measures of relative climatic stability over the past 140,000 years for each grid cell.

We predicted the present diversity of native breeding bird species for each grid cell using models relating each species’ mapped present distribution to recent climate.

We then calculated, for each grid cell, the correlation between the present diversity of birds and the various measures of climatic stability.

Our results showed that overall diversity did not correlate with climatic stability. But they showed that the number of endemic species present in a grid cell today was significantly positively correlated with climatic stability. In other words, the more stable the climate has been, the greater the number of endemic species present today.

Biome persistence

To test our second hypothesis we first fitted models describing the relationship between the present extent of each of the nine regional biomes and the present climate. Using these and the 78 climates computed for each grid cell, we then predicted the occurrence and extent of each biome in each grid cell for each time slice.

The degree of persistence of each biome in each grid cell was assessed in three ways. We then calculated correlations between the three measures of biome persistence for each grid cell and the present number of biome-associated endemic bird species found in each grid cell.

We found strong positive correlations between biome persistence and the number of biome-associated endemics found today in grid cells. That is, the greatest numbers of biome-associated endemics are found today where the relevant biome has been able to persist through most or all of the past 140,000 years.

The threat of extinction

Overall we found that the diversity of endemic bird species in the region is highest where climate has varied least over the past 140,000 years, and especially where the degree of variation of climate has been sufficiently small to enable the same biome to persist.

This result has important implications for the conservation of regional avian diversity as well as global biodiversity. This is because it shows that climatic changes lead to changes in biomes that, in turn, affect the survival of species using those biomes.

It is projected that the climatic changes being caused by current levels of greenhouse gas emissions will be sufficiently large by 2100 to lead to an eventual change of biome across more than half the earth’s land surface. In the case of species that are endemic to an area and use a particular biome, like the birds we studied, this may result in their extinction.

Avoiding such a catastrophe requires countries to implement measures, as agreed in Paris, to limit future climatic change. It also needs conservation strategies that, for example, include management of the wider landscape to facilitate species’ range shifts and the maintenance of species’ habitats. This will facilitate their adaptation to levels of climatic change already under way.

The Conversation

Brian Huntley, Professor of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.