Hasta La Gadget!

Polling after the Orlando shooting shows marked increases in support for gun control and concern about terrorism. Donald Trump’s favorability ratings are actually up from a year ago, but Hillary Clinton’s are more likely to improve. And Trump isn’t talking about his polling numbers for a reason. This is HuffPollster for Friday, June 17, 2016.

A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS SUPPORT GUN CONTROL AFTER ORLANDO – HuffPollster: “Support for stricter gun laws is up sharply after America’s most deadly mass shooting to date, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey finds….A 55 percent majority of respondents now say they support stricter guns laws, up 7 points since earlier this month. The share of Americans who believe that gun violence is a very serious problem rose by a similar margin, while the percentage who think that passing gun control is possible and that shootings are preventable saw smaller upticks….Specific gun control policies are even more popular. Eighty-six percent of Americans polled support closing the so-called terror gap by passing a law preventing individuals on the terror watch list from purchasing firearms. Sixty-two percent back a ban on the sale of assault rifles….There’s no guarantee that fears raised by the Orlando shooting will even last until the election. Far from reflecting an unprecedented sea change, the newest poll shows public opinion returning to about where it was after last year’s shooting in San Bernardino, California.” [HuffPost]

More now rank terrorism as the most important issue – John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos: “After 49 people were killed at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando on June 12, a new poll finds that one in four — 24 percent — Americans ranked terrorism as the issue that matters most to them right now. Those who identify as Republicans were the group most likely to list terrorism as the most important issue — 35 percent ranked it first. That is nearly double the number of Democrats who rank terrorism as the most important issue. That number doubled from 12 percent who ranked terrorism as the most important issue to them in last week’s NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll. The poll also shows that half of Americans — 51 percent — are worried that they or someone in their family might become a victim of a terrorist attack, while 48 percent said they are not worried. And just under six in 10 said the U.S. government is not doing well in reducing the threat of terrorism, up from 53 percent who said the government was not doing well following the Paris attacks in November.” [NBC]

Democrats and Republicans interpret the Orlando shooting differently – Jeffrey Jones: “Republicans and Democrats have starkly different interpretations of what the recent mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub represents. While 79% of Republicans view it primarily as an act of Islamic terrorism, the majority of Democrats, 60%, see it as an act of domestic gun violence. Given Republicans’ more lopsided views, Americans as a whole tilt toward describing it as a terrorist act…. Democrats’ interpretation of the Orlando shooting may be influenced by Democratic leaders’ calls for stricter gun laws in recent days. This was exemplified by a Democratic-led filibuster on the Senate floor Wednesday and Thursday, which ended after Republican leaders agreed to take up proposals on background checks and steps to prevent terrorists from obtaining guns. Trump’s statements on the event may be contributing to Republicans’ views of the Orlando incident as an act of Islamic terrorism, but Republicans’ tendency to define it as terrorism may also stem from their greater concern about terrorism in general. Independents are evenly divided as to whether the Orlando shooting was an act of Islamic terrorism (44%) or domestic gun violence (42%).” [Gallup]

TRUMP’S FAVORABILITY IS UP FROM WHEN HE FIRST ENTERED THE RACE – Philip Bump: “[Hillary] Clinton’s numbers, generally about even when she started, have dropped much more than [Donald] Trump’s. But Trump’s remain much lower than Clinton’s. In 67 polls since last July in which the pollster asked about the favorability of both candidates, Clinton’s net favorability was higher than Trump’s in 65 of them….By our most recent survey, released this week, Clinton’s favorability with Democrats had grown a bit, but her numbers with independents had sunk. Overall, she went from minus-7 to minus-13 net favorability in our polling. Compare that with Trump. Trump had fairly weak numbers with Republicans at the outset, but they improved dramatically over the course of his campaign. He had bad numbers among Democrats — but those got much worse. Among independents, he stayed about flat, but improved slightly on favorability. Overall, he went from minus-63 to minus-38. He went up. Why? Because he didn’t really have anywhere else to go. Republicans view him better than they used to, but he’s still not super-popular with them. He changed some minds — enough to win the Republican Party’s nomination — but not enough, it seems, to persuade most Americans to look at him positively.” [WashPost]

Clinton might have a better chance of improving her image than Trump does – Steven Shepard: “Recent polls have showed Trump’s unfavorable rating spiking again, after a brief improvement last month. That’s also coincided with a slide in national horse-race polls, which now unanimously show Hillary Clinton leading the presumptive Republican nominee. Clinton is also more unpopular than past nominees, but her negatives are neither as wide nor as deep as the broadly detested Trump. Trump is setting modern records for political toxicity — at least for a major-party candidate this far out from an election. Seventy percent of Americans surveyed in an ABC News/Washington Post poll out this week had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, up 10 points over the past month….Voters with a strongly unfavorable opinion are ‘obviously more difficult to move than people who are undecided or just unfavorable,’ said Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown….Clinton is seeking to move those numbers in her direction.” [Politico]

TRUMP IS AMAZINGLY QUIET ABOUT HIS POLL NUMBERS LATELY – David Lauter: “Donald Trump used to love nothing more than boasting about his poll numbers: His recitation of them was a staple of his campaign speeches.There’s little to boast about now. A new Washington Post/ABC News survey finds the share of Americans with a negative view of Trump rose sharply since last month. Half of Americans polled by CBS News disapproved of his response to the Orlando, Fla., shootings, and just one-quarter approved. His support has fallen below 40% in several new national polls of the November race. And a survey of a key Midwestern battleground state shows him trailing Hillary Clinton by 9 percentage points among likely voters. Now, one year to the day after he announced his campaign, Trump has a new line: denouncing ‘phony polls.’ The bad news for Trump probably reflects several developments over the last couple of weeks. Fellow Republicans reacted negatively to his criticism of the federal judge presiding over a lawsuit against Trump University, and Democratic voters have begun to coalesce behind Clinton now that she has clinched the party’s nomination.” [LA Times]

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FRIDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ – Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-PredictWise gives the Republicans just a 25 percent chance of winning the presidency in November. [PredictWise]

-Harry Enten thinks Hillary Clinton could move slightly to the left on issues without seriously endangering her chances of winning. [538]

-Academic research shows that inflammatory racial rhetoric might be becoming less taboo in the U.S. [WashPost]

-A majority of Americans say Congress is doing a poor or bad job. [Gallup]

-Americans are split on whether technology makes people smarter or dumber. [PBS]

-Betting markets say the odds are that the UK will stay in the European Union, but polls show an edge for Brexit. [The Parliament Magazine]

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

A hearing on the restraining order obtained by Amber Heard against Johnny Depp, in a divorce between the celebrity couple in which Heard has accused Depp of abuse, was called off on Thursday, a day before it was set to occur, court officials said.

Heard was expected to testify at the hearing related to the restraining order in Los Angeles Superior Court on Friday, according to E! News and other media outlets.

Instead, the next hearing in the divorce filed by Heard against Depp last month will occur on Aug. 2, court officials said in a statement. The restraining order is part of the divorce case.

The delay allows Depp to gather more witnesses to defend himself against abuse allegations, while for Heard it allows the restraining order to remain in effect at least until the next hearing, said attorney Christopher Melcher, who previously served as chair of the state bar of California family law section, in a phone interview.

It was not immediately clear which side moved to vacate the hearing set for Friday. Attorneys for Depp and Heard did not immediately return calls.

There have been conflicting reports in the media about whether the two sides are moving toward a settlement in the divorce case.

Depp’s legal team had filed court papers seeking to prevent witnesses from testifying on behalf of Heard at the hearing on Friday, on grounds that the actress’ legal team had not provided the names of those witnesses, according to a report on the website of People magazine.

A judge on May 27 granted a temporary restraining order for Depp to stay at least 100 yards (91 meters) away from Heard and move out of the couple’s shared condominium in downtown Los Angeles. The couple married in February 2015.

Heard, 30, said in court filings that Depp, 53, was abusive to her throughout their marriage and that it culminated in an argument last month in which he hurled a cell phone into her face and shattered various objects in her apartment.

In a counter argument, Depp’s lawyer said in court papers last month that Heard “is attempting to secure a premature financial resolution by alleging abuse.”

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

BIRSTALL, England (Reuters) – Britain mourned lawmaker Jo Cox on Friday after a man wielding a gun and knife killed the 41-year-old in an attack that has thrown a June 23 referendum on European Union membership into limbo.

Cox, a supporter of Britain staying in the EU, was shot and stabbed after a meeting with residents in her own constituency near Leeds in northern England by a man who witnesses said had shouted “Britain first”.

She was pronounced dead just over 48 minutes later by a doctor working with a paramedic crew trying to save her life. A 52-year-old man named by media as Thomas Mair was arrested by officers nearby and weapons including a firearm were recovered.

The killing prompted campaigning to be suspended in the EU referendum, the tone of which has become increasingly angry and bitter and included personal recriminations as well as furious debate of issues such as immigration and the economy. 

Though the motives of the killer were not immediately clear, some suggested sympathy for Cox could boost the Remain campaign which opinion polls indicate had fallen behind Leave.

Police said they were not in a position to discuss the motive of the attack.

“Jo believed in a better world and she fought for it every day of her life with an energy and a zest for life that would exhaust most people,” Cox’s husband, Brendan, said.

“She would have wanted two things above all else to happen now, one that our precious children are bathed in love and two, that we all unite to fight against the hatred that killed her.”

A U.S. civil rights group the Southern Poverty Law Center, based in Alabama, said on its website that it had obtained records showing a Thomas Mair had links with the neo-Nazi organization National Alliance dating back to 1999.

The SPLC posted images showing what it said were purchase orders for books bought by Mair, whose address is given as Batley, from the NA’s publishing arm National Vanguard Books in May of that year. The orders included a manual on how to build a pistol, it said.

Flags at half-staff

Britain’s Union flag was flying at half-mast over the Houses of Parliament, Queen Elizabeth II’s London residence Buckingham Palace and Downing Street, where Prime Minister David Cameron has his official residence. Cameron’s spokeswoman confirmed he will visit Cox’s constituency in Yorkshire on Friday.

In Birstall, hundreds of people attended a vigil at a local church. Queen Elizabeth was due to write a private letter of condolence to Cox’s husband.

Some people, many weeping, laid flowers outside the Houses of Parliament. Beside a picture of Cox smiling, dozens of white candles lay beside bunches of flowers and a message board upon which people had written their condolences.

“You can’t kill democracy,” read one message on Parliament Square. Another said: “We will unite against hatred.”

Others put flowers on the houseboat on the River Thames where Cox had lived with her husband and two young children aged three and five.

Beside flowers at the murder scene in Birstall, a message read: “Fascists feed on fear.”

British politicians paid tribute to Cox and expressed shock at the killing, as did leaders across Europe and the world.

Cameron said the killing of Cox, who had worked on U.S. President Barack Obama’s 2008 election campaign, was a tragedy.

“We have lost a great star,” said Cameron, who called the referendum. “She was a great campaigning MP with huge compassion, with a big heart. It is dreadful, dreadful news.”

Hillary Clinton said she was horrified. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called the attack “terrible” but added that she didn’t want to link it to the EU referendum.

It was not immediately clear when campaigning for the referendum would resume. A spokesman for Vote Leave said they would clarify plans later in the day.

The implied probability of a vote to remain rose to 67 percent, up from 65 percent on Thursday, according to Betfair odds.

Who killed Cox?

Media reports, citing witnesses, said the attacker had shouted out “Britain first”, the name of a right-wing nationalist group that describes itself on its website as “a patriotic political party and street defense organization”.

The deputy leader of the group, Jayda Fransen, distanced it from the attack, which she described as “absolutely disgusting”.

West Yorkshire’s elected Police and Crime Commissioner said “our information is that this is a localized incident, albeit one that has a much wider impact”.

Family members, including his brother, said that Mair had not expressed strong political views, the Guardian newspaper reported.

“He has a history of mental illness but he has had help,” the Guardian quoted his brother, Scott Mair, as saying. “My brother is not violent and is not all that political. I don’t even know who he votes for.”

Neighbors described a man who had lived in the same house for at least 40 years and helped locals weed their flowerbeds and inquired after their pets.

“I’m totally devastated – I didn’t want to believe it. He’s been very helpful to me. Anything I asked him to do he did very willingly and sometimes without my needing to ask,” said next-door neighbor Diana Peters, 65.

“I saw him the day before. I was taking my cats to the vet and he came and asked me how they were,” she said.

Gun ownership is highly restricted in Britain, and attacks of any nature on public figures are rare. The last British lawmaker to have been killed in an attack was Ian Gow, who died after a bomb planted by the Irish Republican Army (IRA) exploded under his car at his home in southern England in 1990.

Colleagues expressed shock and disbelief at the death of Cox, a Cambridge University graduate who spent a decade working for aid agency Oxfam and promoted women’s issues.

“We’ve lost a wonderful woman, we’ve lost a wonderful member of parliament, but our democracy will go on,” Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said in a televised statement. “As we mourn her memory, we’ll work in her memory to achieve that better world she spent her life trying to achieve.”

(Additional reporting by Kylie MacLellan, Paul Sandle, Michael Holden, Sarah Young, Andy Bruce, Kate Holton and Elizabeth Piper, Writing by Guy Faulconbridge, Editing by Tmothy Heritage)

— This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

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