How Long Do iPhone Owners Own an iPhone?

Retirement age has increased three months in past three years

Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) released analysis of the results from its research on Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).

iPhone has become the dominant factor in Apple, Inc. financial results, so we want to understand the dominant factors in iPhone results. One factor, the length of time that current iPhone owners wait to upgrade their phones, appears to have lengthened materially in the past two years, at least in the US.

Among buyers of a new iPhone that own an old iPhone, in the past three years, the age of these retired iPhones has increased steadily (Chart 1).

Chart 1: Age of Previous iPhone of iPhone Buyers (trailing twelve months)
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In the year ending with the June 2013 quarter, 66% of old iPhones were either under one year old or from 1-2 years old. By the March 2016 quarter, 51% of old iPhones were either under one year old or from 1-2 years old. The oldest retiring iPhones (those over three years old) increased from 5% of all old phones in the year ending with the June 2013 quarter to 12% in the March 2016 quarter.

We can translate these retiring iPhone age distributions into an estimate of the change in age of previous iPhones. Over the past eleven quarters, in some quarters the average age of a previous iPhone increased by as much as four weeks. It did decline in a few quarters, from mid-2014 to mid-2015, and again in the most recent March 2016 quarter. Overall, over the past almost three years the average age of a new iPhone buyer’s previous iPhone has increased by approximately three months.

We can think of at least two reasons why iPhone upgrade timing has slowed. The rate of change in iPhone features has slowed. In addition, phone financing plans now encourage iPhone owners to hold on to their current phone. Only a few years ago, mobile carrier phone purchase subsidies encouraged customers to upgrade a phone on a steady two-year cycle with no monthly discount for holding a new phone beyond two years. Today, phone financing plans effectively reward customers who have paid for their phone in full. This motivator appears to outweigh the impact of any early upgrade options that carriers offer with the new financing plans, and the increased availability of trade-in programs and used phone purchase websites.

At least in the US, Apple increasingly sells new iPhones to current iPhone owners. This means the current installed base is the most important future customer market. In the absence of compelling new features, which will encourage early upgrade from iPhone 6 models, these factors will influence and probably limit US iPhone sales in the coming quarters, relative to past quarters.

CIRP bases its findings on its quarterly surveys of 2,767 Apple customers that purchased an iPhone, iPad, or Mac in the US in September 2012-March 2016 quarters. For additional information, please contact CIRP.

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Don't Bank On The Supreme Court To Clarify The Second Amendment Anytime Soon

If you think the Supreme Court is poised to expand or restrict gun rights sometime soon, don’t hold your breath.

As handwringing continues over what might have prevented the Orlando massacre — an old-time filibuster sparked by it even broke out in the Senate on Wednesday — the justices are about to consider a state gun control law enacted in the aftermath of the Sandy Hook school massacre in Newtown, Connecticut.

According to its docket, the court on Thursday will weigh whether to take up Shew v. Malloy, a case with all the elements that could make it emblematic for the battle over the Second Amendment’s meaning.

It’s a dispute between a host of gun rights groups, businesses and individual gun owners against Connecticut over the constitutionality of a sweeping regulatory regime that bans so-called “assault weapons” — semiautomatic firearms and large-capacity magazines of the very sort used in Newtown and Orlando.

Back in October, an appeals court in Manhattan said the Connecticut law and a similarly restrictive law in New York were constitutional — and the plaintiffs vowed to take the battle to the Supreme Court.

Tom King, the head of New York’s biggest gun rights group, even said he was “happy” to have lost the case because that meant his organization could now ask the highest court of the land to decide the issue once and for all.

But then Justice Antonin Scalia died. And suddenly, the gun lobby’s calculations changed — including King’s, who told the New York Daily News weeks after Scalia’s death that it was “just the wrong time” to continue the fight in the absence of a reliable conservative vote at the Supreme Court.

That might explain why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) glowingly pointed to the National Rifle Association’s opposition to Merrick Garland, the president’s high court nominee, to rationalize his own refusal to hold a vote and a hearing for Garland. 

None of this matters, and yet it matters a great deal.

Because despite the pleas from gun rights advocates who still want the Supreme Court to take up the challenge to the weapons ban, the justices could wield all kinds of reasons not to touch the case with a 10-foot pole.

It’s not that they aren’t interested in clarifying the scope of the Second Amendment in the wake of Scalia’s magnum opus in District of Columbia v. Heller, which for the first time recognized a fundamental right to gun ownership in the home. But to echo King, it’s just not the right time — not with a short-staffed Supreme Court, a volatile political environment, and a nomination fight that may very well continue after President Barack Obama’s successor takes office.

As things stand now, all signs point to an extremely quiet and uncontroversial Supreme Court term beginning next October — a dry season that will stand in stark contrast to the current term’s constitutional blockbusters on affirmative action, abortion and immigration, to name only a few. The court just isn’t taking many new cases.

This paucity of potential big decisions aside, the court has sent some signals that the Second Amendment is safe, even as it has rejected dozens of cases challenging gun control measures across the country, leaving lower courts as the final decision-makers.

Over the protest of Scalia and Justice Clarence Thomas, the Supreme Court refused in December to review an appeals court decision that effectively upheld an assault weapons ban in a small Illinois town. Thomas said that decision treated “the Second Amendment as a second-class right.”

The Second Amendment extends … to all instruments that constitute bearable arms, even those that were not in existence at the time of the founding,
Supreme Court of the United States in the case Caetano v. Massachusetts

But in March, a month after Scalia’s death, the justices tipped their hand the other way, ruling that a Massachusetts ban on stun guns may violate the right to bear arms, quietly but forcefully endorsing the late justice’s Heller decision.

“The Second Amendment extends … to all instruments that constitute bearable arms, even those that were not in existence at the time of the founding,” the court said in a very brief ruling that no justice signed his or her name to.

But writing separately, Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito said they would have gone further, asserting that indeed, gun ownership for self-defense is a “fundamental right” while making clear that Americans’ safety shouldn’t be “left to the mercy of state authorities who may be more concerned about disarming the people than about keeping them safe.”

Fighting words, as well as fodder for debate about where the court may go next on guns.

It is precisely this seeming tension within the Supreme Court — plus the political fallout from Scalia’s vacancy and all the work that other courts are doing to make some sense of the Second Amendment — that indicates why the justices probably won’t pull the trigger on the next big gun rights case soon.

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Radio on the Road to 2030

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2016 is the first year of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a new global blueprint for change. Strategically applying ICTs — and radio in particular — will be key to achieving the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals within the next 15 years.

One of the landmarks of last year was the global agreement on a new plan of action to follow the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In September 2015, world leaders gathered at the United Nations in New York and unanimously adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The 2030 Agenda builds on the momentum of the eight MDGs with its 17 new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Ambitious, global goals

The MDGs rallied the world around a common cause to improve the lives of the world’s poorest people, with significant results, but there is still much work to be done and a lot at stake — and not just in the developing world. Significantly for Canadians like me, the SDGs are for the whole planet (unlike the eight MDGs, which focused only on less developed countries). They are sometimes called the Global Goals for this reason.

The 17 new goals and 169 new targets are also more ambitious than their precursors. The MDG to reduce poverty has been replaced with the SDG to eliminate it completely, for example, and the targets are more demanding across the board. The new plan also encompasses new issues such as climate change, sustainable consumption, and innovation.

Leadership and vision

We do not have an easy task ahead of us. Strong leadership and vision will be key to making the goals of the 2030 Agenda a reality. In 2015, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced the appointment of Dr. David Nabarro, who recently led the UN’s Global Ebola Response and Scaling Up Nutrition movement, as Special Adviser on the 2030 Agenda.

Recently, during a conference in Ottawa, Dr. Nabarro described the 2030 Agenda as a “horizontal mosaic of life.” He emphasized the importance of seeing the SDGs as fully integrated, complementary, mutually reinforcing, and interdependent. To be successful, he says, we must avoid the human tendency to stovepipe and silo them, and treat each goal as independent, stand-alone, and in need of its own specialized bureaucracy.

This is a remarkable vision and a daunting challenge. How will we, the people of this planet, identify and weave together actions that will bring about these ambitious yet essential goals?

Rising to the challenge with interactive and participatory communications

We need to work together as a human race like never before. To do that, communications is key.

One of most notable differences between now and when the MDGs were launched in 2000 is the richness of the information and communication technology (ICT) environment and the potential this offers for more interactive and participatory communications that reach and connect vast numbers of people at a very low cost.

Those of you who have read my past blogs will not be surprised when I make the case for radio as a particularly powerful ICT. A relevant and well-loved form of mass media around the world, radio is especially useful when it comes to reaching and serving rural communities in developing countries.

The ubiquity of radio in the developing world is met only by that of cell phones, which give radio more power and appeal than ever before. Combined with cell phones, radio has been re-born as a two-way, interactive tool that can give voice to those who are typically heard from the least.

Broadcasting change in Africa

In my work with Farm Radio International, I see every day the amazing things that radio can do. Here are just two recent examples of how interactive, participatory radio is broadcasting change across sub-Saharan Africa.

In the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, a radio show is raising awareness about the importance of secondary education for girls. It is contributing directly to ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education (SDG 4) and achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls (SDG 5). It also contributes indirectly to many others, as the benefits of investing in women can also include economic growth, poverty alleviation, and communities that are more safe, resilient, and inclusive. Through this interactive radio program, the views and perspectives of parents, community leaders, and students are given primacy, so that the challenge of quality education for all girls and boys is the focus of a community conversation writ large over the airwaves. It has had impressive results so far, boosting the commitment of parents and community leaders to their daughters’ education.

With cell phones in their hands, rural people aren’t limited to listening to radio programs; they can also participate. We developed a tool called beep2vox to give farmers a free way to connect with radio stations and shape the broadcasts that serve them. In the world of radio, “vox” means voice — and beep2vox is our system for sharing farmers’ voices with a missed call, at no cost to the caller. When audience members call the radio station and hang up, leaving a “beep” with the station, they are called back and given the opportunity to leave a recording to be played on the air.

Sharing the voices of small-scale farmers over the airwaves can be incredibly powerful and transformational — especially for women farmers. One of the projects currently employing beep2vox technology is Her Voice on Air, a project designed to help create farm radio programs for women by women. Through the project, women farmers are gathering in listening groups and using a smartphone to record and send messages to their radio station to be aired in subsequent broadcasts. Women farmers report that hearing themselves on the radio has not only made them feel more confident but has also led to an increased awareness and appreciation in their community of the contributions they make. These radio programs are empowering women (SDG 5), advancing food security, nutrition, and sustainable agriculture (SDG 2), and helping farmers cope with the impacts of climate change (SDG 13).

Inexpensive and impactful, radio is a platform that can facilitate knowledge sharing on a grand scale. This will be key when it comes to advancing the ambitious agenda ahead of us.

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Video Shows Student's Heroic Takedown Of Gunman During Seattle Pacific University Shooting

Two years after a deadly shooting at Seattle Pacific University, prosecutors have released surveillance footage showing the heroic actions of a student who disarmed the gunman.

The graphic video was released Tuesday by the King County Prosecuting Attorney’s Office after a lengthy court battle between media outlets, the university and victims, The Seattle Times reports. 

The full video (not posted here) shows the accused gunman, Aaron R. Ybarra, 26, shoot a female student with a shotgun. When Ybarra pauses to reload, student-safety monitor Jon Meis jumps from behind a corner, pepper-sprays the assailant in the face, tackles him to the floor and takes away the shotgun. After stashing the weapon out of the view of the security camera, Meis returns and grabs the killer in a headlock.

WARNING: GRAPHIC VIDEO

Paul Lee, 19, of Portland, was killed in the June 5, 2014, attack. Two other students were wounded.

Ybarra, who had a history of mental illness, is scheduled to go on trial in September on charges of first-degree murder and attempted first-degree murder. Ybarra and his attorney are reportedly pursuing an insanity defense.

Meis quickly emerged as a hero, credited with saving other students’ lives.

“I knew that if I didn’t stop him, he would keep going,” Meis said of the gunman, in an interview with NBC News.

Seattle Pacific University said in statement Monday it was “disappointed” by the release of surveillance videos. 

“We, along with others, have pursued legal action to stop the videos’ release in order to protect individual privacy and prevent the emotional distress these images will have on our community,” the university said. “Seattle Pacific University remains strong and resilient as a result of God’s faithfulness to us. Our foremost concern continues to be the welfare and safety of not only our students, faculty, and staff, but of the victims and witnesses of the tragedy.”

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Pokemon GO, Pokemon GO Plus accessory launch date revealed

screenshot_4-768After a long wait at E3 2016, Nintendo finally gave the information that Pokemon fans have probably been waiting for. The Pokemon Go Plus accessory for the game is scheduled to launch late July. Although not explicitly stated, that can only mean that the monster-catching AR game itself will be launching at the same time. Of course, we can hope … Continue reading

Apple will only let you remove iOS 10 apps, not delete them

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Tribal Customary Law in Jordan: Sign of a weak state or opportunity for legal pluralism?

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By Lily Lousada

Strict Bedouin legal codes often overpower civil law in Jordan, drawing the state’s most basic sovereignty into question. To this day honor killings, revenge killings, and forced displacements occur frequently and often without official legal proceedings. In order to ensure internationally recognized human rights and uphold the constitution, the justice system requires structural reform. Jordan should work towards institutionalizing these informal practices by codifying customary tribal law into a legally pluralistic system that aims to respect, and regulate, long-standing principles of tribal justice and traditions of arbitration.

There are three main court systems in Jordan: civil, religious, and military. Tribal law, though rampantly in use, remains informal since its abolishment in 1976. Customary tribal or Bedouin law is predominantly organized around clear reactions to disturbances of social order and family honor. It runs parallel – and at times in direct opposition to – Jordanian civil code.

Besides a monopoly of the use of force, rule of law is a theoretical cornerstone of ‘sovereignty.’ It would therefore appear that the active presence of such self-governing practices undermines the state. Yet, legal pluralism – formal or otherwise – is not necessarily symptomatic of a weak state. The challenge comes in integrating and applying pluralism in a way that recognizes long-standing alternative notions of justice and yet creates and upholds a fair system for all.

The United States, Canada, and Australia for example, all maintain customary bodies of law governing indigenous populations: Federal Indian law, Canadian Aboriginal Law, and Australian Customary Aboriginal Law, respectively. As a result, there is strong precedent and significant pre-existing discourse on reconciling multiple legal systems – the Australian Human Rights Commission for example, continues to consult with top international legal scholars to address the unique challenges of legal pluralism and indigenous law.

Informal legal pluralism is already in practice in Jordan. Frequently police act to contain conflict, and then hand the issue over to the involved tribes to resolve the crime or move toward reconciliation. In January of this year, for example, the gendarmerie was called into the northern Governorate of Irbid to control riots that had broken out as a result of a 14-year-old boy being fatally shot by his neighbor. According to the Jordan Times, Irbid Police Department Director Brig. Gen. Ali Hamlan stated “no one was injured in the [riot] fires because the families of the suspect were evicted to a remote location based on tribal laws [jalwa]”. This is just one example of the common, unofficial collaboration between state and tribes.

Jalwa, one of the more striking contemporary practices of Bedouin law, is the forced relocation of a clan to protect against revenge killings in the case of pre-meditated murder or rape between two neighboring tribes. Jalwas are usually reached through third party arbitration of a ceasefire, atwa, and negotiations by a perceived neutral authority, such as another tribe’s sheikh.

Atwas illustrate a practice in which government and tribes sometimes more formally merge authority and legal codes. In January 2016, for example, there was a direct state-sponsored atwa, resulting in a large jalwa. The atwa delegation was led by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education Mohammad Thneibat, and guaranteed the victim’s family’s conditions, including, as the Jordan Times reported, “sentencing the killer to death, dropping the right of the suspect to hire a defense lawyer, evacuating the suspect’s tribe (all those related to the suspect through the fifth paternal ancestor) and giving the victim’s clan the right to kill the perpetrator’s father, children, grandchildren, uncles, and their children if they pass by Mutah town at any time.”

This practice violates a number of international human rights, as well as elements of the Jordanian constitution. The government has made small efforts to limit jalwas, such as to only apply them to the immediate family for example, but these efforts have been met with only varied success. Ironically, much of the progress in limiting jalwas that has been achieved has relied on tribal code, such as the honor pact in Salt.

Furthermore, if a case involving tribesmen does reach a civil or religious courthouse, the long-established notions of tribal justice are still likely to influence the ruling – as seen with reduced sentences at the victim’s family’s request for leniency – if not altogether pre-determine it. The idea that tribal power opens flexibility in the legal system, where court rulings go from firm decision to negotiation, is an undeniable degradation of the rule of law – and perhaps even state sovereignty. But, if codified correctly, the presence of these two systems of justice does not have to be a weakness.

To integrate and institutionalize tribal customary law into Jordan’s civil and religious codes requires rigorous, transparent, and continued dialogue to account for the special set of legal considerations – the most basic of which is equality – that comes with legal pluralism. Extensive outreach and consultation with local communities would also be necessary. While the government has worked to improve the existing justice system, it has thus far failed to make the necessary structural reforms. It is time for Jordan to step up and engage in deep and open dialogue as a first step to increasing transparency and finding a sustainable way to reconcile the existing systems to better protect basic human rights and uphold the constitution.

Lily Lousada is based in Amman, Jordan where she works on conflict mitigation, socio-political stability, and governance development. She also serves as a Middle East Fellow at Young Professionals in Foreign Policy.

Image Credit: Lily Lousada

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How to Protect Your App from Security Threats

During the development stages of a mobile app, the timeline can get behind. This may lead to rushed protocols and a few key elements, like security, lacking in effectiveness. Developers need to take the necessary time to make sure apps are not capable of being breached. Smartphones are costly, and malicious malware, worms and viruses can disable them – rendering them useless.

Create the Right Language in Framework

If the language used in your app’s framework is not correct, attackers can easily find a loophole to weasel in and gain access to control the app. This leaves users vulnerable to attacks on personal devices and the theft of any personal information that may be stored within the app. In some cases, simple modifications to the language development teams use can prevent these attacks from occurring.

Conduct Breach Tests

Hire hackers to breach your own app. The only way to know if it’s penetrable is to test it. Each hacker should use a different approach so that the app can show the ability or inability to counter the attack, alert developers, or not react to the attack at all. Knowing how safe your app is by testing it from a hacker’s perspective is one of the best modes of creating a safe mobile app.

Control Permissions Manually

A big issue with mobile apps is that users are not always given the option to control the permissions an app is requesting. Some want access to social networking websites, email addresses, and home addresses. If you use a mobile banking account, an important feature is the ability to set a permission control to automatically logout each time the app is closed.

Now, if you are one to always tap “accept” when you are asked to accept the terms and conditions of using the app without reading the text, you may be in trouble. There is information in those disclosures that will tell you what information an app wants and what it will be used for. Do not hit accept if you have read the terms of use and/or privacy policy and do not agree to all of the terms.

Protect your Device Too

When you are developing an app, it is always a good idea to encourage your users to have an outside mobile security program installed. The backup in security is helpful and can prevent a user’s device from being compromised as they can be prompted of the attempted attack and to remove the app from their device immediately. It is estimated that about 5 billion Android apps are susceptible to security attacks.

Any devices using the same app should all have additional security back-ups in-place. Device protection is just as important as developers creating secure apps.

Personal Information Safety

Questions surrounding personal information security, especially with mobile banking applications, exist. Sensitive personal information can be accessed in the event of a banking app security breach. In most cases, attackers go directly at the bank’s protocols rather than an individual device due to the ability to gain access to thousands, if not millions, of customers’ private banking information. Most banks have made adjustments to their apps, specifically after a breach, to prevent attacks from occurring.

Secure Shopping Carts

Applications that require users to make a purchase should have secure shopping carts. Major retailers, like Starbucks, have had breaches to their payment systems on mobile applications. Hackers are able to go into the payment system and copy the account numbers or credit card numbers used and steal them for their own use. Shopping carts should be tested prior to launching a mobile app to ensure that it is secure.

Developers Use Minimal Personal Information

Some apps really do want too much information. It can almost seem like an intrusion on your personal life. Giving up too much personal information to an application makes it more at risk for an attack. Attackers want the most information they can get from a person as possible. The less an app asks for, the less useful the information is to hackers.

Final Word

One thing that app developers can do is give users a quick reminder notification to logout of its services and clear the browser history to erase the information input during a session. Having the ability to automatically clear the history and delete the session history should also be made available. The more features and information an app has or requests is what makes it desirable to attackers. The most important thing to take away from this information is to keep your application simple and locked up as securely as possible.

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Trump Banning Reporters Echoes Nixon, China

Banning the Washington Post from covering his campaign rallies isn’t just a sign of Donald Trump’s distrust of the press. Reporters are an early warning system. History shows that politicians who turn against the media and cut off their access don’t stop there.
Remember Richard Nixon. Nixon made no bones about it–he hated the press, made life difficult for reporters , put members of the press on his “enemies list.” He tried to block publication of the Pentagon Papers in the New York Times. His vice president Spiro Agnew denounced the press in a famous 1970 speech as “nattering nabobs of negativism” Recordings of Nixon’s White House conversations are filled with his attacks on the press and disparaging comments about them.
In the end, the press still uncovered his crimes. Nixon’s hatred of the press reflected his paranoia and contempt for all his opponents and for the rule of law
Several people have asked me recently if I ever had my press credential revoked. It is revealing that the only place that I have run into problems with press credentials has been China where the Chinese government monitors the overseas and domestic press closely and tries to exert control by approving and rejecting reporter visas and residence permits. That creates huge obstacles to reporters trying to do their jobs, especially when it comes to holding the Chinese government and its leaders accountable.
Sound familiar?
In 1989 I was sent to China by the Boston Globe to report on the aftermath of the Tiananmen massacre. The Chinese refused to give me a reporting visa so I flew to Hong Kong and entered as a tourist. When they asked my occupation, I put down “English teacher.” I think the Chinese visa officials in Hong Kong knew that I was a journalist; many of them were angry about the massacre and wanted it reported. From 2002-2005 I was the China Bureau Chief of the Wall Street Journal based in Beijing. The Chinese refused to issue visa for some of our reporters whose earlier stories about China they didn’t like. At one point we feared they might shut down the Wall Street Journal office because of our aggressive reporting on the SARS outbreak, which China was covering up. In the end they backed off, though we had to be careful we didn’t imperil our Chinese sources who were giving us information. A few years ago when I was an Executive Editor at Bloomberg News, the Chinese refused to issue visas for me, other editors, and a number of our reporters because they were angry about Bloomberg’s prize-winning investigations of the hidden wealth of China’s top leaders. It made covering China much more difficult–which was what the Chinese intended. The New York Times has faced the same obstacles.
Banning the Post from his rallies can only hurt Trump. Most stories on rallies report simply what the candidate said and maybe some audience reaction. Reporters are resourceful and they will get the news. The danger for Trump is that this controversy distracts people from his political message–unless of course he sees political advantage in attacking the press, which I suspect he does.
I took my journalism class to New Hampshire in February to cover a Trump rally and was shocked when, a few minutes before Trump appeared, an announcer came on over the ioudspeaker declaring that that “while Mr. Trump respects the First Amendment” he wouldn’t tolerate any cat-calls or jeers. If anyone started protesting during his speech, the announcement said, the crowd should surround the protester and security would eject them. In all my years covering campaigns I never encountered anything like that. As we have seen, Trump rallies are now places where protesters are routinely ejected and violent clashes are now taking place
In a press conference last month, Trump noted that his approach to the press would stay the same if he were elected president. “Yeah, it is going to be like this,” said Trump, whose campaign has also banned the likes of Politico, Buzzfeed, and the Daily Beast. “You think I’m going to change? I’m not going to change.”
If you want to control a free press, chances are you want to curb other kinds of free speech and criticism as well.

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