HUFFPOLLSTER: Gary Johnson Isn't Impacting The Race Much, For Now

HuffPost Pollster has new charts that allow users to compare poll questions with and without Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson named. Voters don’t see Hillary Clinton as an agent of change. And Americans are deeply divided by education level. This is HuffPollster for Thursday, July 28, 2016

GARY JOHNSON DOESN’T SEEM TO CHANGE THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RACE “When polls ask voters to choose between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, Clinton currently leads Trump by over 1 percentage point overall. When Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is included in the question, that lead evaporates. Johnson himself averages nearly 9 percent support when he’s named in poll questions. Clinton loses over 4 percentage points to Johnson, going from 43.9 percent in questions without any explicit mention of him to 39.6 percent with the Libertarian in the picture. Trump drops more than 3 points, from 42.6 percent to 39.2 percent, when Johnson is a named option in the poll. If it seems counterintuitive that a Libertarian candidate would pull more from Clinton than from Trump, keep in mind that we’re in the middle of the conventions. Johnson was taking more from Trump than Clinton a few days ago.”  [HuffPost]

The numbers have shifted slightly since publication, but the general trend is still the same: Johnson pulls slightly more support from Clinton than Trump to make the race tied when he’s included. According to the estimates, without Johnson in the picture there’s about an 89 percent chance that Clinton leads Trump. With Johnson, that drops to a 65 percent chance that Clinton is ahead.

VOTERS KNOW MORE ABOUT CLINTON’S POSITIONS, DOUBT SHE WILL BRING CHANGE – Baxter Oliphant: “More voters say they know a lot about where Clinton stands on important issues than say the same about Trump. About half (53%) say they know a lot about Clinton’s positions; by comparison, fewer (43%) are confident they know where Trump stands. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are just as likely to say they know a lot about where Clinton stands (50%) as they are about Trump (53%). Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, on the other hand, say they know much more about Clinton’s positions (57% say a lot) than Trump’s (36%)….Even voters who say they will support Clinton in a matchup against Trump this fall say she’s unlikely to bring much change to the way things work in Washington. Well over half (58%) say this, while another 38% say she will bring positive change. Trump’s supporters are roughly evenly divided between those who say she would make things worse (52%) and those who say things wouldn’t change much under a Clinton administration (46%).” [Pew]

CLINTON AND TRUMP DIVIDE AMERICANS BY EDUCATION – Eli Yokley: “Among America’s most-educated voters, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a strong lead over her Republican rival, Donald Trump, a Morning Consult analysis has found. But among voters who did not ever attend college – working class Americans to whom the Democratic Party hopes to appeal during its convention here this week – the race is nearly tied…. Clinton [has] a 17-point lead over Trump, 51 percent to 34 percent, among voters with post-graduate degrees. With voters who have only a bachelor’s degree, Clinton leads Trump, 45 percent to 40 percent….Trump once said, ‘I love the poorly educated,’ and according to the survey, he has an advantage with voters over the age of 65 who did not attend college, leading Clinton 49 percent to 33 percent. Among the entire population of those who did not attend college, Trump led Clinton by only 1 point during the survey period, 41 percent to 40 percent.” [Morning Consult]

The Democratic Party no longer relies on working-class whites – Ronald Brownstein: “[E]xcept for Bill Clinton in 1996, no Democrat has won more than 40 percent of white voters without a college education since 1980, according to media exit polls. On a national basis, Democrats have largely replaced them with increased support from Millennials, minorities, and college-educated whites—while running just enough above their national numbers among working-class whites in the key Midwestern battlegrounds to retain the advantage in those pivotal states….Even so, many in the party are incredulous that so many blue-collar whites are flocking to Donald Trump, a candidate Democrats view as uniquely divisive and unqualified. The post-Republican National Convention polls released on Monday poked directly at that anxiety. Trump held big leads among non-college whites in the surveys released by both CBS (23 percentage points) and CNN/ORC (fully 39 percentage points). The CNN poll had Trump attracting not only 69 percent of non-college white men but 64 percent of white women without college degrees—and recording most of his convention gains among the latter.” [The Atlantic]

MANY AMERICANS AREN’T SATISFIED WITH TREATMENT OF MINORITY GROUPS – Art Swift: “Among six key groups in society, Americans are least satisfied with the way Arabs and immigrants are treated in the U.S. Less than half of Americans are satisfied with the treatment of either group. In contrast, Americans are most satisfied with the way Asians are treated (75% very or somewhat satisfied). A slim majority, 51%, are satisfied with the treatment of blacks….Thirty-two percent of black Americans say they are satisfied with how society treats blacks, within two percentage points of the lowest reading over the past 15 years. Americans of other racial and ethnic identities are more positive about the treatment of blacks, however. Forty-seven percent of Hispanics and 56% of whites are satisfied with society’s treatment of blacks.” [Gallup]

 

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THURSDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ – Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Donald Trump is performing poorly among Catholic voters. [538]

-The Republican Convention speeches increased support for Trump. [PSB Research]

-John McCormick says that convention bounces are like sugar highs. [Bloomberg]

-Mark Blumenthal digs deeper into the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll that showed no convention bounce for Trump. [SurveyMonkey]

-Stephen Sestanovich explains why Trump’s pro-Russia stance won’t help him among voters. [WSJ] 

-Nate Silver argues that the Democratic primary actually wasn’t a close race at all. [538]

-Danny Hayes predicts that Clinton’s nomination could cause more women to become politically involved and to run for office. [WashPost]

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Things to Do Before Starting a Small Business

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The idea of starting a small business can be very intimidating. The pressures and pitfalls loom large, making one wonder if it is worth the effort. But with zeal, planning, and diligence you can deal with, if not avoid most of these pitfalls. The key here is a good foundation. So, without further ado, here are a few steps that will help you start your small business with every chance of success.

1. Come up with a business idea
If you already have something in mind, that’s great. But if you don’t you can look up for various business ideas online and consider their feasibility. Do not confuse this with a business plan. That comes later. At this stage, you just want to brainstorm ideas, either alone or with a few others.

While considering ideas keep your talents and skills in mind. Do you know about the field you’re planning to venture into? Do you have experience in it? Your own experience and skills can add a lot to the field you’ve decided to work in.

At this point, you may also want to consider whether you’re planning to do this alone or bring in additional partners. Both sides will have their pros and cons. If you do plan to bring in someone else, keep in mind that their skills complement yours.

You might also consider coming up with a name for your business at this point, just to have a vision of what you intend to create. You need not keep it permanently, especially if you think of something better later. Just make sure it isn’t already in use.

2. Write a business plan
A business plan encapsulates everything you want your business to be. The first thing to write down is a description of your business. State whether you will be the sole owner or a corporation or LLC and why. Describe your potential customers and the marketing strategy you intend to adopt. Know who your competitors are and why they have been successful or otherwise. Know how you plan to create or manufacture your product or offer your service and what the costs involved are. State how your business will be organized.

At first, don’t write out a detailed plan. That is best left for later or for when you’re approaching investors, so they can determine the feasibility of investing in your business. But to clarify the idea of your business to yourself and to set goals, you can create a short business plan that encompasses some of the important points – what you plan to achieve with your business, why you are setting up the business, your goals, strategies, and your action plan.

3. Plan your finances
Chances are high that you will need at least a small amount of capital to start your business. Just the basic operational requirements can cripple a business if you haven’t planned for them. Determine where you will obtain this capital from – a small business loan, a line of credit, investments or savings. Keep an eye on your running costs. Estimate how much you can afford to spend on the essentials and try to keep the costs at a minimum. Wastage is a no-no.

Don’t just focus on the costs involved in starting your business. To be on the safe side, try to have enough money set aside that you can run your business for at least six months without showing a profit.

You may decide that image is everything and splurge on expensive business premises, furniture, and the whole nine yards. Beware, many businesses have floundered because they spent too much initially. This is the time to focus on your business. The trappings of success can come once you’re actually successful.

4. Look at the legal aspect
The first thing you’ll need to do is look around for an attorney or a legal advisor. There are several rules and regulations involved in starting up a small business. Ignorance of these is not an excuse. At the same time, you may not have the time and knowledge to take care of this yourself. Look for someone who specializes in the paperwork and legal issues involved in starting a business.

You will also need an accountant. Someone has to keep an eye on the financial aspect of your business, the debit and credit, payroll, licensing fees and taxes. Again, you may not have the time to take it all on yourself. Hire someone you can trust or approach reliable firms.

At this point, you will also need to establish what sort of a business entity you are going to be. This decision depends on how your business is being financed. You may choose to be the sole proprietor. If you have partners you will have to decide whether you want to be a general partnership, a limited liability partnership or limited partnership.

If you don’t need a business loan or definitely think you can make strong, consistent income in the business, some debt would be acceptable as long as you stay committed to paying (securing a low finance rate wouldn’t hurt either

Clear all outstanding
As much as you can trade comfortable under the umbrella of some PPI insurance policy. It is advisable to clear all outstanding that might keep your business lagging in the process, most especially, the credit card or personal loans that you can’t run from. Always have it at the back of your mind that your business has a long way to go and there would be reason for some funding in the future which could be better aided by some financial institution, with this in mind, clearing all outstanding debt before starting your business should be prior to your business and if not done, has tendency to create room for business instability.

If you have decided to start a small business, you are in for an adventure. Prudence and proper planning can prevent this adventure from turning into a disaster and give you the financial freedom that you have always craved. Good Luck!!

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8 Happiness Secrets Only Cat Owners Know

Happiness Secret 1: You’ll never miss a single, glorious springtime dawn. 

No matter how early the sun is coming up now that daylight saving time has kicked in. Sure, you hadn’t planned on waking up quite so early—you got home from the after-party at, what, 2 a.m.? But now, the light is filtering in through the blinds, and a certain someone is stalking around your pillow, licking your face and—when you try to bury it in your arm—poking her paw under your elbow…oh, you’re awake? Why, what a coincidence—my food dish is empty!

Happiness Secret 2: No matter how poor you think your sense of humor is—No one ever laughs at my jokes. Why can’t I land a punch line? And why on earth couldn’t I come up with something devastatingly clever to say when I ran into my ex last night with his new girlfriend?—you live with at least one creature who has an even worse one.

Who, in fact, possesses absolutely no sense of humor whatsoever. This doesn’t mean that cats don’t do hilarious things by mistake. (See: all of YouTube.) They just never let on.

Happiness Secret 3: Who knew? Your down comforter does fit into your washing machine.

Something you’d never have discovered were it not for… well, never mind. After all, it washed right out, and now you know. Aren’t you happier?

Happiness Secret 4: Fickle expressions of love can be quite gratifying.

Your cat has ignored you all day, but then… the sudden weight landing on the bed, just as you’re tumbling to sleep, the little cat’s feet pick-pocking over your own and the warm lump curling up behind your knees. This must be what it feels like to have a teenage child who’s been distant and disdaining for months suddenly turn to you in the car and ask for your take on a cryptic text from a crush. You don’t know how it happened, but you’ve become cool again. Or at least tolerable. And with a cat, you know for sure that it’s not because someone just remembered who will be paying for college in a few years.

Happiness Secret 5: You and your cat have your own secret language.

Studies on feral cat colonies have turned up the surprising fact that cats living together in the wild, without humans, don’t meow to one another. They rarely vocalize at all. Researchers believe that cats meow to us because we talk to them. What’s more, there is no universal cat-human dictionary. In his 2013 book,Cat Sense, John Bradshaw writes that “each cat and its owner gradually develop an individual ‘language’ that they both understand, but that is not shared by other cats or other owners.” So, yes, your cat really does understand you, and you her.

Happiness Secret 6: You don’t need to go on a hike to get in touch with nature.

Felis catus is an ambassador of the wild kingdom who’s taken shelter under your roof. This is a realization that may hit you unexpectedly, when you catch the eye of a fox, or a squirrel, or a deer or even a songbird on the lawn and see the essence of something familiar, something you see in your own home, in your own cat’s eyes.

Happiness Secret 7: Mystery makes the heart grow fonder.

Your cat’s love for catnip doesn’t surprise you, but ziplock bags? She’ll steal one and play with it for hours. And why does she ignore the slice of cheddar and carefully pull the cracker underneath it onto the floor to eat? You have no idea, but she does, then finishes the whole thing.

Happiness Secret 8: The world is so much better with you around.

The proof being your cat, waiting for you at the end of a long, exhausting day, standing on his hind legs at the patio door, stretching up toward the handle (looking exactly like Dustin Hoffman banging on the church doors at the end of The Graduate). Once you get inside, there’s the official dance of welcome, as he does his best to weave between your legs as you do your best to walk down the hall carrying the groceries. This is, of course, before he decides to punish you for your abandonment by ignoring you until he hears you open the can of cat food. Diagnosis: cat.

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Russian, Syrian Forces Widely Using Cluster Bombs: Rights Group

BEIRUT (Reuters) – The Russian-backed Syrian government’s air campaign against rebels is widely using cluster munitions, banned by more than 100 countries because of their indiscriminate nature, Human Rights Watch said in a report released on Thursday.

The rights group said it had documented 47 cluster munitions attacks, which killed or wounded dozens of civilians in opposition-controlled territory in the past two months.

Cluster munitions are containers that explode in the air to distribute smaller bombs over a large area.

“Since Russia and Syria have renewed their joint air operations, we have seen a relentless use of cluster munitions,” said Ole Solvang, HRW’s deputy emergencies director. “The Russian government should immediately ensure that neither its forces nor Syria’s use this inherently indiscriminate weapon.”

Russia has denied using cluster munitions in Syria, HRW said, but evidence was growing that it had stockpiled the weapons and either used them or participated in attacks where they were used. There was no immediate response from Russian officials to the latest report.

Cluster munitions were used in a July 11 attack in the northwest province of Idlib that killed at least 10 people, HRW said, and a picture taken near the site showed a bomb being dropped by an SU-34 – a jet it said only Russia uses.

Photographs of the aftermath of another attack a week later, near the al-Tanf border crossing in southern Syria, showed cluster munitions remnants, including unexploded bomblets, or sub-munitions, HRW said. Rebel fighters and the United States said the raid was carried out by Russian jets.

Russia is not a signatory to a 2008 United Nations treaty, that bans use of cluster munitions because of their indiscriminate nature and the threat to civilians posed by unexploded bomblets, which remain a long-term threat.

Since mid-2012, Syrian government forces have used both air-dropped and ground-launched cluster munitions, HRW said.

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Riley roving camera is a home sentry robot

riley-1A company called iPatrol has a new HD camera robot called Riley. The little bot cruises around your home on two-rubber tank-tread like strips. It is able to see in the dark with night vision tech and can alert the homeowner when motion is detected. Riley is operated via an app that is available for iOS and Android devices. The … Continue reading

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Mercedes’ Rescue Assist App Uses Augmented Reality To Help First Responders

mercedes-ar-app-first-responders-3We’re sure you guys have probably seen photos of a really bad car crash or two. Sometimes the cars are so mangled that it looks like trying to get the person out of the car is next to impossible, but this is the job of first rescuers and first responders. Now it isn’t as simple as just ripping the door off or cutting their way through the roof.

This is because due to the accident, certain things could have shifted around and cutting the wrong area could be disastrous for both the rescuer and the victim. This is why Mercedes has decided to make it easier for first responders with a new Rescue Assist app that relies on augmented reality technology.

Basically the app will be able to tell first responders where it would be best to start cutting into the car. Given that the app is designed by Mercedes, it will come with digital rescue cards for the company’s entire range of vehicles. The app will give users a 3D model that lets them zoom in and rotate, as well as overlay internal components of the car on top of the actual accident.

Newer Mercedes models will come with a QR code that will let users identify the car with the app, and the good news for owners of older models that these codes can be retrofitted onto their vehicles if they wish.

Mercedes’ Rescue Assist App Uses Augmented Reality To Help First Responders , original content from Ubergizmo. Read our Copyrights and terms of use.

Pokemon GO Player Shot Three Times In The Park

pokemon-goA little over a week ago, we reported that Pokemon GO gamers were accidentally shot when a person mistook them for burglars. Now according to new reports, it seems that we have ourselves another Pokemon GO-related shooting in which a 26-year old by the name of Gregory Wheeler was shot 3 times while playing the game in Linden Park.

According to the report, Wheeler was out playing the game in the park when he was approached by a 14-year old boy who said he wanted to borrow Wheeler’s phone to call his mother. Wheeler lent the boy his phone, who then proceeded to hop onto a bike and ran off, with Wheeler naturally giving chase.

However he soon found himself surrounded by a group of men who punched him in the head and shot him three times. Thankfully the gunshots weren’t to particularly vital areas of his body and were aimed at his foot, and once in each thigh, presumably trying to disable Wheeler so that he would not be able to chase them.

Like we said, it wasn’t critical and Wheeler is in the hospital recovering from surgery. According to Local prosecutor Ron O’Brien, “If you’re going to play the game, it would be wise to travel in pairs, be cognizant of your surroundings, pay attention to what time of day you are playing, use caution when alerting strangers of your future location, and do not venture into locations that would otherwise be considered dangerous.”

Pokemon GO Player Shot Three Times In The Park , original content from Ubergizmo. Read our Copyrights and terms of use.

Marvel Aiming For Harry Potter Format With The Spider-Man Sequels

SpidermanThe Spider-Man movie franchise has been rebooted several times, but it seems that Marvel is pretty sure that the latest one could be it because during the San Diego Comic-Con, Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige stated that he wanted a progression to the Spider-Man sequels that is similar to how the Harry Potter movies progressed.

According to Feige, “Should we be able to make more after that? Sure. This is sophomore year, is the next one junior year? Is the next one senior year? Is there a summer break between each of those? I don’t know what, but it was sort of how do we do a journey for Peter not dissimilar for what the students of Hogwarts would go through each of their years, which was one of the early ideas we had for the movies.”

Basically instead of every sequel having Spider-Man face down a new foe, it sounds like Feige wants this particular Spider-Man to grow and progress through his life, and hopefully achieve the same level of movie success that Harry Potter did. Spider-Man itself is pretty famous as a comics franchise, so this would no doubt take things to the next level.

Tom Holland’s Spider-Man made an appearance in Captain America: Civil War and many have praised his portrayal of Spider-Man. Comic-Con attendees were also treated to a clip of the upcoming Spider-Man which garnered pretty positive responses as well, so here’s hoping the third time’s the charm.

Marvel Aiming For Harry Potter Format With The Spider-Man Sequels , original content from Ubergizmo. Read our Copyrights and terms of use.