Here’s more no-surprises news: The median age of passenger cars is creeping up, to 9.4 years old in 2008 compared to 9.2 years the previous two years, says R.L. Polk, an auto information provider. A decade ago, in 1999, the median age was 8.3. The median age for trucks also climbed to 7.6 years vs. 7.3 and 6.9 the past two years. (Trucks wear out faster now, the opposite of a generation ago.) In 1999 it was 7.2 years median truck age. At the same time, the scrappage rate – when vehicles go off the road for good – is falling historically, but it’s been up and down the past two years, at 5.1% for cars and 5.6% for all vehicles in 2008. Polk says the upward blip is from vehicles of the late 1980s and 1990s falling apart the last couple years. But in 1970 the scrappage rate for cars was 9.5% and 8.7% for all vehicles.
What it means: Better-built cars last longer and drivers make marginal cars last longer when the economy sucks. Older fleets means less life-saving technology (stability control, airbags) and fewer tech gadgets (Bluetooth, iPod adapters, navigation). In the future, automakers may be selling fewer replacement cars.