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Dec 18

Where Is Steve Jobs?

Steve Jobs’ absence from the public eye is prompting questions about the Apple CEO’s status, management effectiveness and health.

So far, the company has done little to provide substantive answers to those questions.

The
mystery behind the lack of a Stevenote is leading some to
speculate that Apple is getting ready to dethrone him, that Jobs has lost some of his typically ironclad control or that his health is failing.

"The
company can be a little more open about what’s happening with Steve
Jobs," said Vijay Rakesh, a ThinkPanmure analyst. "It’d help everybody
put some uncertainty to rest."

Whether he is sick or not, analysts and investors are justified in wanting to know the state of Jobs’ health and position
at Apple. His management style has been responsible for turning Apple from an also-ran into one of the electronics industry’s true success stories. Perhaps recognizing his value, worried investors knocked 7 percent off the company’s share price the day after the company announced he would not make his traditional January appearance at Macworld Expo. And business site Breaking Views estimates Jobs himself accounts for about $20 billion of Apple’s current market capitalization.

"That makes Jobs’ absence from an upcoming trade show where he’s
historically the keynote speaker worrisome, especially amid speculation
surrounding his gaunt appearance in the summer," writes Breaking Views’
Jeff Segal.

Several
Apple employees contacted by Wired.com have reported that they haven’t seen Jobs since the company announced the CEO would not appear for a Macworld keynote. Jobs generally isn’t very visible in public, but the employees said they haven’t seen him on campus recently, either.

Apple on Tuesday said Jobs would not
deliver his traditional keynote at Macworld Expo 2009, reigniting
discussion about Jobs’ health and his status as CEO. Apple also said
2009 would be the corporation’s final appearance at the Macworld trade
show — and said that’s why it’s not worth Jobs’ time to show up.

"Phil
is giving the keynote because this will be Apple’s last year at the
show, and it doesn’t make sense for us to make a major investment in a
trade show we’ll no longer be attending," Apple spokesman Steve Dowling
told Time.

But
Dowling’s explanation is insufficient. There’s
no reason that Jobs, who has delivered Macworld keynotes for the past
11 years, would be a "major investment." It’s not as though Apple pays
Jobs to announce new MacBooks or
iPods: He is Apple’s face. And why would it be less of an investment
for Philip
Schiller, senior vice president of marketing, to deliver the Macworld keynote instead of Jobs?

Apple’s typical vagueness is leading some analysts to believe Jobs will soon leave Apple because his health issues are returning.

Rakesh said he believes Apple
isn’t preparing to simply give Jobs the boot. He said it’s more likely
that Apple has developed a new executive team, which will gradually
transition Jobs out of his role as CEO.

"It won’t be Jobs staying at home, and starting next day the new guy
comes," Rakesh said. "It’ll be a transitional overlap — over the next six months — until the next team takes over."

Similarly,
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster on Wednesday distributed a note
saying his firm believes Apple is getting ready to shift management
roles.

"Yielding this
year’s Macworld keynote to Phil Schiller, along with the participation
of Tim Cook and Phil Schiller at the October event is, in our view, a
clear message that a leadership shift is underway," Munster said.

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Photo: Jim Merithew/Wired.com