Howard Fineman: Health Care Law: All Hail The Failure Of Conventional Wisdom

WASHINGTON — Is this a great country or what? Not because the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the overall scheme of the president’s health care law. That is an ordinary question, no matter how much money was at stake. It is a great country because the workings of our carefully wrought system of government are not predicated on punditry, predictions or polls.

Defying the expectations, Justice John Roberts — said to be a relentless conservative activist — joined the court’s “liberal wing” in saving the law by grounding the “individual mandate” not in the power of Congress to regulate commerce, but in its taxing power. As I suggested yesterday, the court essentially said that Congress could not require people to buy something in the private economy, but they could fine them if they didn’t. The court found that power to fine, in the taxing power of Article I. Now the president will have to figure out a way to make the fines in the law — which are weak and toothless — real.

The obvious big political winner, at least initially, is President Barack Obama. Had the court thrown out the core mechanics of the law, his signature accomplishment would have been in shambles. He can take to the campaign trail with the backing of none other than George W. Bush appointee Roberts. His polls were on the upswing and may get a boost. There are troubles down the road. He has to make the fines real. Most people don’t like the mandate, no matter what it is grounded on. Republicans and their likely nominee, Mitt Romney, will make overturning the law their crusade for the campaign, and they will have the polls on their side.

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