WASHINGTON — The consensus across the political spectrum is that GOP leaders would prefer to see comprehensive immigration reform passed, but rank-and-file House Republicans are reluctant to back any proposal that grants a pathway to citizenship, because doing so is the quickest route to a primary challenge from the right. That dynamic, it’s said, will mean a long, slow death for reform.
But the pessimism around immigration reform misses a key difference between 2013 and 2014. The general election won’t be until November 2014, but primaries are held in the spring and summer. The deadlines to get on the ballots for those primaries often come months earlier, meaning that at some point in 2014, the chance of a surprise challenge from the right goes to zero for all House members.
Far from being the death of immigration reform, some think the election year could breathe new life into the effort. The House will undoubtedly recess for August without passing an immigration bill; House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) told his conference last week they would focus on Obamacare, the IRS and gimmicky votes on government conference spending and public salaries.
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