Five Technologies Our Kids Won’t Even Recognize

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By the time you lazy-bones, time-zone-challenged North Americans read this, the hot new Kindle Magnum should be all over the news. It has many hopes pinned upon it, from the ludicrously optimistic wishes of the newspaper industry to the rather worried expectations of the chiropractic industry (no heavy textbooks equals no spinal injuries to treat).

One thing is sure, though. Tech rolls in and out of fashion, and today the turnover is faster than ever. It won’t be long before many seemingly permanent gadgets disappear and become mere curiosities. Here are a few things that will seem as retro to the kids of tomorrow as the steam ship seems to us today.

VCR

Just last night I asked the Lady “When was the last time you taped a TV show?” It was, of course, years ago. In fact, the only reason she still has a VCR is because the TV remote is lost, so the VCR is effectively a giant channel changer.

Does anybody out there still have a video under their TV? You can’t rent movies, recording is both a pain and low, low quality and even buying a machine is tricky.

Death Rating 5/5

Books

This one will take a while, but paper books will eventually be the written equivalent of the vinyl record — loved, collected and sold in small numbers, but really just a niche market. The e-reader isn’t nearly ready enough yet, but if the Kindle Magnum (or DX, or whatever) makes its way into schools and colleges, the formative experience of reading will be electronic, not paper, and that will be the beginning of the end.

Death Rating 2/5

Letters

More paper, and more words. A letter that comes in the mail is so rare these days that we can probably declare it extinct, with a few unsubstantiated sightings every year — much like Bigfoot. It’s a shame — writing a letter was a longer, more considered affair than banging out an email, an act which itself already seems out-of-date in these days of the Twitter. And receiving one from a friend or loved one is magical.

This romantic, personal method of communication has also formed a good chunk of history, something that will be lost — can you imagine the collected e-mails of a famous person being published after their death?

Death Rating 5/5

The Newspaper

The news isn’t going anywhere. The opposite, in fact — it is now possible to consume news from an almost endless supply, from amateur video to local blogs to forward thinking magazine-based sites (like Wired.com, for example). But the newpaper? Dead. Or at least on life support, begging to be put out of its misery.

The reason is, of course, the internet. Gutenberg’s legacy might limp on a little longer, but the internet does the exact same job — dispersing information — much more efficiently. In fact, the jump from printed paper to electronic delivery makes the original move from handwriting to movable type look like a mere historical blip, and that isn’t to put down the printing press in any way at all.

Death Rating 5/5

The Desktop PC

What? Yes. The beige box is headed the way of the mainframe. Notebook computers already outsell desktops, and for good reason — the performance of a portable is close enough to the desktop for everyone except Pixar. More importantly, computing is so ubiquitous and essential that anyone who can afford a computer wants their own machine, and they want to take it with them. A laptop is no longer a luxury, it’s the norm.

But even these are going to disappear, or perhaps be consigned to remain, ironically, on the desktop. Take a look around you: What do you see in everybody’s hand? That’s it — a cellphone. And the cellphone is fast becoming the only computer most people will need. It will probably also be their book, their newspaper and their VCR.

Death Rating 4/5

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Textbook Error: Large-Screen Kindle Photos Leaked

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These rather blurry pictures come to us by way of the folks at Engadget, and to them from an anonymous tipster. They show the new Kindle, which will probably be announced tomorrow.

The details: a 9.7-inch display, bigger than the six inches of the regular Kindle; a PDF reader (at last) and a new “annotation” function, which is added to the the notes and highlighting features of the current model. As I speculated yesterday, this doesn’t look like the saviour of newspapers as much as a way for Amazon to clean up in the textbook market. Textbook sized pages? Check. Note-adding capabilities? Check. Support for standard e-documents (PDF)? Check, check, check.

We don’t have long to wait now, as the Amazon announcement, whatever it may be, is tomorrow. A textbook Kindle, though, could be a huge hit. Lighter than the books it replaces, possibly even cheaper than those books and targeted at a consumer who neither cares for the “romance” of dead trees nor for endlessly flipping through paper pages to find their notes. This, we think, could be the real tipping point for the e-book.

Still unknown: What this large-screen e-book reader will actually be called. Engadget refers to it as the “Kindle DX,” but without citing any sources, so we assume that they’re making up names, same as everyone else. GigaOm’s Om Malik calls it Kindle HD, and we prefer the more direct and American Kindle XL. What do you think, readers?

Amazon Kindle DX to feature 9.7-inch display? Update: Pictures! [Engadget. Thanks, John!]

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Large-Screen Kindle Won’t Mean Squat if Apple Tablet Arrives

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Amazon is almost certain to announce a large-screen Kindle on Wednesday.

In the world of e-book readers, that’s huge. But if Apple fulfills expectations and releases a tablet-style computer later this year, it’s going to render the Kindle — no matter what screen size — almost instantly moot.


Amazon’s Kindle is far and away the most popular e-book reader; Amazon probably sold half a million last year and may sell a million Kindle 2’s this year. Yet the Kindle’s 6-inch screen, while impressively readable and crisp, is only slightly larger than a 3″ x 5″ index card. That’s why many magazine and newspaper publishers are excited about the prospect of a larger Kindle — let’s call it the “Kindle XL.” Even if it’s not as large as Plastic Logic’s promised 8.5″ x 11″ screen (due in early 2010), a larger screen would provide lots more room to display the day’s news, attractively laid-out feature stories, and, of course, advertisements.

Textbook publishers — who may be Amazon’s true target market, if the speculations of our own Charlie Sorrel as well as Om Malik are correct — may have even more to be happy about. The $9.8 billion textbook market is a prime example of the slowness, stupidity and waste of paper publishing. Plus, students would welcome the chance to ditch backbreaking tonnage and carry a thin, lightweight e-book reader instead. Amortized over the four or five years of a typical college education, even a $500 or $600 reader would be a reasonable expense. UPDATE 3:30pm Pacific: According to the Wall Street Journal, six universities will be offering their students e-textbooks on the large-screen Kindle.

But all this pales in comparison with what an Apple tablet could do. Rumors earlier this year suggested that Apple is working on a larger version of the iPhone with a 9 or 10-inch touchscreen, rather than a tablet-style MacBook. More recently, BusinessWeek cited anonymous sources suggesting that Apple and Verizon would soon release an iPhone-like “media pad” with a larger screen.

Imagine that the “media pad” includes a screen two to four times the size of the iPhone’s 3.5-inch (2″ x 3″) screen, Wi-Fi connectivity, the ability to run software from the App Store and a full web browser.

The usefulness of a device like that would instantly trump that of any e-book reader, even if the battery life is poor and the screen less readable than an e-ink screen. That’s because a simple, easy-to-use tablet would be able to do anything the e-book reader could (display the text of books using an app like Stanza, which Amazon recently acquired) plus it would have access to 40,000 apps and billions of web pages. Its screen would be able to display color, and it would undoubtedly let you access e-mail, IM and other apps that people want.

By contrast, e-book readers are good at basically one thing: Storing and displaying monochrome text and simple graphics. While the Kindle 2 has a web browser, it’s all but useless for even the most basic web activities.

Make no mistake: There are many more people who would be interested in a general-purpose tablet than in an e-book reader. Sure, the majority of them would probably use it to download bikini photos of Evangeline Lilly while watching Lost on the big screen instead of re-reading Proust.

But if the PC and smartphone industries are any guide, people will opt for a well-designed multipurpose device over a special-purpose gadget every time, even if the latter does a few things much better. Already, there are more people reading e-books on the iPhone using Stanza alone (more than one million) than on the Kindle.

We don’t know whether Apple will release a tablet or not. But if it does, its sales will make the Kindle’s million units look like a rounding error.

See Also:

Illustration of an imaginary iPhone tablet: Flickr/vernhart


Will Anybody Buy The New Large-Format Kindle?

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Amazon is on the cusp of busting out a new, large format Kindle. The new e-ink device could be here this week and be big enough to read magazine and newspaper layouts without too much dickering with their designs.

This is the claim made in yesterday’s New York Times, citing “people briefed on the online retailer’s plans.”

Unfortunately, the story then goes off into a kind of newspaper fantasy land, full of unicorns, marshmallows and time-reversals. The big hope for the Big Kindle is that it will somehow reverse the fortunes of the the spluttering print news industry, allowing publishers to charge subscription fees and load their pages with advertising, even though everyone with an internet connection can get the same content free.

The move by newspapers and magazines to make their material freely available on the Web is now viewed by many as a critical blunder that encouraged readers to stop paying for the print versions.

And:

Publishers could possibly use these new mobile reading devices to hit the reset button and return in some form to their original business model: selling subscriptions, and supporting their articles with ads.

This is, apparently, serious. The trouble with this business “model” is that it forgets that there is an internet, while at the same time using that same internet as a convenient distribution system an order of magnitude cheaper than pulping trees, running them through a building-sized press and then moving them around the country in trucks. As others have written, news won’t go away if newspapers go away. The format of a print newspaper is dictated not by the content (the news) but by the technological limits of its production and distribution.

The NYT piece mentions, in passing, the real market for a large-format e-book: Text books. Not only would a big Kindle be easier to carry than a back-breaking rucksack full of college books, it would probably be cheaper. Cheaper, that is, if only the publishers would relent and stop overcharging for downloaded material.

For they, too, profit from scarcity, just like the newspapers, and scarcity no longer exists in a digital world. Charging $100 for a ones-and-zeros version of a $100 book is obviously nonsense, as the record labels found out when they lost their own industry to piracy. And the market here is college students, apparently the most voracious pirates of all. Catch them quick, textbook makers. Subsidize this new Kindle, make the books way cheaper than they are in print and allow students to re-sell them when they’re done, like they can now. Otherwise those students won’t be paying for your books at all.

Finally, while a large-screen Kindle would be very welcome, Amazon should perhaps start selling the regular Kindle outside the US. Just saying, is all.

Update: It looks like the story is true. Amazon has started sending out invites for a press event this Wednesday. Wired.com will be covering it, so stay tuned to Gadget Lab for the lowdown.

Update 3:30pm Pacific: According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, six universities will be offering their students e-textbooks on the large-screen Kindle.

Looking to Big-Screen E-Readers to Help Save the Daily Press [NYT]


$200 E-book Reader set to Make its Debut

The BeBook Mini will be smaller and cheaper

The BeBook Mini will be smaller and cheaper than its earlier version.

Dutch company Endless Ideas is set to launch a new version of the BeBook e-book reader in Europe with a 5-inch display screen that will be priced at $200 or less.

The new BeBook reader is expected to be available in the next few weeks and will be similar to its predecessor in almost every way. The orginal BeBook reader retails for €298 ($395) and has a 6-inch display. It runs Linux operating system and unlike the Amazon Kindle has no wireless capability.  BeBook like most of its rivals uses the E Ink display.

The BeBook is manufactured by Chinese company Tianjin Jinke Electronics, which largely sells its readers under the Hanlin brand. That means the BeBook Mini will also be available as the Hanlin v5 Reader.

It is not clear if the BeBook will ever be sold directly in the U.S. but the device still has to battle it out in a crowded market.  While Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader lead the market in North America, companies such as  Samsung, Fujitsu and Foxit are competing for readers internationally.

See also:
E-Book Reader Roundup
BeBook E-Reader is Over -Priced and Under-Powered

Photo: BeBook Blog


Short Movie Brings Paper Computer to Life

This is Noteboek, a short film by Dutch artist Evelien Lohbeck. It is also the product promo for the best multipurpose gadget that ever lived, a little notebook whose pages bring drawings to life. Geeky life.

Many of our childhoods were filled with such things. I’m old enough to remember drawing pretend computers into my school notebooks, which, when not ignoring geography lessons to work on my comic book “Extreme Team”, was my main school pass-time.

Lohbeck actually has a computer, though, so he was able to make his fantasies real. This meta rabbit-hole, using a computer to make a notebook into a non-computer, continues in the short film. YouTube becomes the portal through which real-life enters, only to be corrupted again by paper machines, including an amazing pop-up toaster.

Check Lohbeck’s site for more — Noteboek actually contains some other shorts made separately. In all, a fantastic little movie. And is it just me, or do you all want one of these magic books?

Movie page [Evelien Lohbeck via the Giz]

Video: iPod Shuffle vs. Kindle 2 Speech Fight

This fantastic video pits the text-to-voice abilities of the iPod Shuffle and the Kindle 2 against each other in an amazingly appropriate contrivance — the two machines re-enact the Voight-Kampff interview from the movie Blade Runner.

If you have seen the movie or have read the novella Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, you’re in for a treat. If you haven’t, stop reading immediately and go do your duty.

The purpose of the video — to check out the quality of the artificial speech, is satisfied with a clear winner — the Kindle. This may be because it is based on the voice of a real person, and not a replicant voice like that of Alex in the shuffle. Are you seeing how clever this video is yet?

Talking Gadget Theater: Blade Runner, starring the Kindle 2 and iPod Shuffle [DVICE]

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iSuppli: Puny iPod Shuffle Is Worth a Mere $22 in Parts

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An electronics analysis company performed a teardown of Apple’s latest iPod Shuffle, which revealed the product’s parts are only worth 28 percent of its retail price.

iSuppli, a company that deconstructs gadgets to evaluate their components’ value, estimates that altogether, the Shuffle costs Apple $21.77 with components, headphones and packaging accounted for. That’s about 28 percent of the Shuffle’s $80 price tag.

That estimate doesn’t include the costs of advertising, labor and development. But still, the Shuffle’s profit margin is higher than other iPod models, according to BusinessWeek. By way of comparison, the 2007 iPod Touch amounted to $147 in components — about half of its $300 retail price.

Is this what Tim Cook meant when he said in January that Apple would "invest our way through this downturn just as we did the last one"?

See Also:

Updated Monday, 9:30 p.m. PDT to clarify that the component estimate does not include costs of advertising, labor and development.

Photo: Dylan Tweney/Wired.com

   

Denon Record Player Rips as it Plays

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Speaking of vinyl, what if you have a stack of old records around that you want to listen to on your iPod? If you ask the RIAA, you’ll be pointed towards an online store where you can pay for your music all over again. If you ask the folks at Denon, they might suggest their new  DP-200USB, a turntable with a twist.

The $250 record player does all the dirty work for you. You can, of course, just pop on a record and listen, but the guts of the machine contain an MP3 encoder and will not only detect gaps and separate tracks into individual files, it will query Gracenote and actually add names and ID3 tags to the resulting MP3s. To be clear, the tagging is carried out by included software back on your PC.

The neatest touch, though, is the position of the USB port. It’s on the front, so you can just stick a pen-drive in their and rip. Just press record and it’s all automatic once the music starts. You even get to listen as you copy.

I’m pretty sick of tinny-sounding MP3s, but I love the convenience and I don’t want to start buying CDs again. This is tempting me to hit the thrift-stores and pick up some classics for pennies. If only it would encode in a lossless format. Then I’d be sold.

Product page [Denon via Oh Gizmo!]

Archos Promises Android-Packed Media Tablet/Phone

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In a public release to investors over the weekend, Archos revealed company plans to release an Android-powered internet tablet by the start of Q3 2009.

In light of a difficult year financially, the French-based company intends to ‘integrate telephony’ in the device in order to jump into the fray of the communications/media single-player gadget market. 

According to the release, Archos intends to improve its new lineup of media players in four ways: Increased availability of mobile TV (through WiFi and 3G networks), better mobile web services, direct media content through the Archos Media Club download service, and by adding a phone ‘communication’ feature.

Presumably, all aspects will be improved with the use of the Android OS. Having reviewed the latest version of the Archos players, I think a flexible OS and sleeker browser UI are obvious places in need of improvement. But the continuing focus on content from the Archos Media Club is disappointing, since I found the current version to be mainly composed of overpriced crapware.

The addition of a phone is the latest move for a company looking to quickly diversify its product line.

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Back at CES, Archos announced it was getting into the netbook arena with a mostly unimpressive (and basically re-packaged) laptop hardware. Then, a couple of months ago, an Archos executive said the company was looking into integrating vibrant OLED screens into their players if it improved the experience.

At the time, we noted that while the latest Archos players are already excellent video and music media players, browsing the net was a slow, crippling experience in comparison to the iPhone.

Adding phone functionality to an Archos tablet seems like a no-brainer, since the company has likely lost business to companies offering all-in-one media experiences.

Last year, Archos posted a loss of $24 million (on a gross margin of $13.7 million), or about half the amount it made in 2007. This was despite a line-up of products that were mostly of high quality, though they did tend to skew toward the expensive.

There is currently no word on exactly how much the Android internet tablet/phone will cost or whether it will follow the aesthetic design of the most recent players. But the release does mention the price may go all the way up to 500 Euros or more than $650.