Google’s mobile phone operating system, Android, made a big splash last year with the promise of many nifty phones from a slew of handset makers. But six months later, only one Android phone is on the market: the HTC G1. Other than that, Google phones are scarcer than cabinet nominees who pay their taxes.
Several major handset makers have claimed they have Android devices in the works, but phones running the OS were largely missing at last week’s CTIA wireless trade show in Vegas and at the Mobile World Congress conference in Barcelona last month. Apart from a handful a new models this year, it appears the majority of models won’t be out until 2010.
"There is some loss of momentum in terms of perceived value, especially from a media and public perception point of view," says Charles Golvin, an analyst with Forrester Research.
So what’s holding the Google phones back? Time to
development, the lack of support from major U.S. carriers Verizon and AT&T, and some fears about how
reliable Android is, say analysts.
Android is Google’s attempt to enter the packed — but presumably lucrative — market for smartphone operating systems. Currently, that market is dominated by Apple’s iPhone, Nokia’s Symbian Series 60, Research in Motion’s BlackBerry and Microsoft’s Windows Mobile. Despite the economic slowdown, smartphones sales are expected to outpace the overall mobile industry growth and post double-digit annual revenue growth by 2011.
Getting a chunk of this market is important for Google because it allows the company to play in a market that will potentially be even bigger than the PC-centric web. With Android, Google is betting on an ambitious open source strategy that will put software written by it at the center of this business and help drive mobile access to its own apps.
This year, three or four new
Android-based phones are likely to be on the market, including the HTC-manufactured Vodafone Magic. The touchscreen Magic will be similar to the G1 in looks, prompting some to dub it the "G2," though it lacks the G1’s full keyboard.
Samsung will be the other major company to offer Android phones in 2009, launching an Android phone outside the United States in June and another one in the works for later this year. The company did not share any specific details about the devices. Struggling cellphone maker Motorola has also promised an Android phone toward the end of the year.
"I think the bulk of Android devices will come next year," says Chetan Sharma, a telecom analyst who has his own consulting firm.
The biggest promise of Android has been that it is a free and open
platform that device manufacturers could take and customize to suit
their own needs. Since its launch, a number of major handset
manufacturers, including LG, Samsung, Motorola and Garmin, have said
they are working on Android devices, hoping to slap the inexpensive OS
onto their devices. The move could bring down their costs in the long
run and offer smaller companies a chance to fight larger rivals such as
Nokia and Research In Motion.
"Android is all about the long term payoff in terms of
simplification of the platform and operating system for manufacturers,"
says Golvin. "But it you look at the G1, it is a very good device for a
first effort. But it has some rough edges, which is a reflection of the
software."
Compare that to Apple’s iPhone OS, a closed and proprietary system
that is about to go into its third version. The iPhone 3.0 OS is
expected to be available this summer
along with a new version of the device. The new iPhone will offer
several interesting new features for users and developers, including
global search and the ability to sell additional content through third
party applications. The iPhone OS is also the de facto
standard — because of its place in popular perception — for other
manufacturers to better.
The longer it takes for Android devices to come to market, the more
likely it is that developers and users will shift to competitors such
as Apple, Research In Motion or even Palm. That’s where Android faces
the real threat.
One reason for the delay in new Android phones could be that it
takes time for companies to customize a new platform to their needs.
"It’s a completely new platform and it takes time to customize it to
the hardware," says Michael Gartenberg, vice president of strategy for
Los Angeles-based analytics firm Interpret.
To get the first Android phone out, Google appears to have focused
on working with one handset maker, HTC, says Tim Bass, senior manager
of strategy for Samsung Telecom America. "That created a bit of a gap
for other companies," says Bass. "Now we are seeing equal support from
Google for all devices."
LG, meanwhile, says it is looking at the Android platform, but the
company says it has its hands full with new hardware that showcases its
proprietary S-class 3-D user interface. "We are exploring Android but
nothing’s locked down yet," says Tim O’Brien senior director of
marketing for LG Electronics Mobile U.S.
For other handset makers, such as Garmin and Asus, finding telecom carriers to pick up their Android devices won’t be easy.
Major U.S. carriers — Verizon and AT&T in particular — aren’t
exactly clamoring for Android phones. The duo are not a part of the Open Handset Alliance,
the group that advocates Android. And AT&T already has a runaway
smartphone hit with the iPhone, while Verizon’s BlackBerry Storm is a
respectable success, too.
"The big carriers are worried that if they launch something that is
not fully baked, they will have to risk an expensive recall of the
devices," says Sharma. "It takes time to work out the kinks with any
new operating systems, so it would be fair to say the major carriers are
adopting a wait-and-watch attitude."
The next Android devices in the United States will be on T-Mobile and Sprint,
the only two carriers that are part of the Open Handset Alliance. And
Sprint’s hands are pretty full for now with the upcoming Palm Pre
phone. The Pre is expected to launch exclusively on the Sprint network
by the end of June.
"Right now Sprint is very focused on Palm as a partner and has put
most of its marketing dollars around it," says Golvin. "Even if there
were an Android device waiting to be activated on the Sprint network,
Sprint would probably say, ‘let’s hold off so we can get full bang for
the buck from the Pre.’"
Still, all this is no reason to write off the Android, say analysts.
"In the grand scheme of things, small delays are not going to take away
from Android’s attractiveness as a platform for handset makers," says
Golvin.
Photo: HTC Magic/G. Photo Credit: Priya Ganapati/Wired.com.
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